Simulation 8Z12   Main

Long Suit or Punt III

by Richard Pavlicek

[First read Part I and II]

Having shown in Part II that even an unsafe punt (leading a short suit trying to hit partner) is better than a safe lead in your own suit, let’s move up a notch and see just how far this unsafety prevails.

Suppose you are West with this hand on the same auction:

J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2

West Pass

North 3 NT

East All Pass

South 1 NT

Should you lead the J, 10 or 10? The difference is that J-2 is far more risky than 10-2, while the safe leads (hearts and diamonds) remain the same. Is a spade still the winner? I would have thought not, but the previous results are ominous. Let’s find out.

To determine the best lead I created 10,000 random deals with the West hand fixed, and North-South constrained to fit the bidding: South HCP 15-17; freakness less than 3 (balanced); with a 5-card major, doubleton must be J-x or better; North HCP 9-14 (max 14 revalued points); freakness less than 5; no 4-card major unless 4-3-3-3 shape.

Another surprise. Even with J-2 being very unsafe, it still fares much better than a heart at total points or IMPs, though a heart prevails slightly at matchpoints. I am certainly enlightened, and I’ll have to take this one step further hoping to redeem my senses. On to Part IV.

Results for 10,000 Deals

Lead	Trick Avg	Make Pct	Matchpoints	Nonvul TPs	Nonvul IMPs	Vul TPs	Vul IMPs
J	10.214	87.50	19949 49.87	428290 36.54	10600 39.29	592090 34.58	11928 38.16
10	10.290	92.01	19667 49.17	609950 52.03	13741 50.94	906550 52.95	16088 51.47
10	10.353	93.49	20384 50.96	720100 61.43	16124 59.77	1069500 62.47	18872 60.37

Trick Avg shows the average number of tricks won by declarer. Make Pct shows the percent of time the contract is made. Matchpoints shows the raw total (European style: 2 for a win, 1 for a tie) and effective scoring percent. Total Points and IMPs are shown similarly as raw totals and percents, with separate accountings for N-S nonvulnerable and N-S vulnerable. (Vulnerability does not affect matchpoints.) All numbers are relative to declarer, so lower values indicate better for the defense.

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 10 and last 10, and selected deals in-between where the lead made a significant difference. The number of tricks won by declarer is shown for each lead, assuming double-dummy play by both sides thereafter.

Seed 47AD16BE 10000

1.	A 4 Q J 5 6 5 3 2 K Q J 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 9 8 5 3 K 3 2 J 7 8 5
J 11 10 11 10 11	10 7 6 A 4 A K Q 4 A 10 9 6

2.	A 9 3 4 3 J 7 2 A Q J 9 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 6 5 4 A K J 2 Q 4 3 8 5
J 12 10 8 10 10	K 10 8 7 Q 5 A K 6 5 K 10 7

3.	10 6 Q J 4 K Q 2 Q 10 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 5 4 3 K 5 3 J 4 A 8
J 8 10 12 10 12	A 9 7 A 2 A 7 6 5 3 K J 9

4.	9 6 4 5 3 A K 7 5 3 K 10 8
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 10 8 7 A Q 2 J 6 4 Q 9 6
J 12 10 12 10 12	A Q 5 3 K J 4 Q 2 A J 7 5

5.	Q 10 7 Q 2 J 7 6 5 2 A 10 8
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 9 5 4 J 3 A Q Q J 7 6 5
J 12 10 11 10 11	A 8 6 3 A K 5 4 K 4 3 K 9

6.	10 7 4 3 A K 3 K Q 6 Q 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 6 5 2 J 7 2 J 10 9 8
J 11 10 11 10 11	K 9 5 Q J 4 A 5 4 3 A K 5

7.	9 4 K Q J Q J 5 2 A 9 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 10 7 3 4 A 6 4 3 J 8 7
J 9 10 11 10 11	A 8 6 5 A 5 3 2 K 7 K Q 10

8.	Q 10 7 A J 2 J 7 6 A 10 9 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 9 6 4 3 Q 4 3 A Q 5 8 6
J 11 10 10 10 10	A 8 5 K 5 K 4 3 2 K Q J 7

9.	7 3 K 5 A J 7 6 5 A 9 8 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 6 5 4 Q 4 Q 4 2 Q 7
J 11 10 12 10 12	A 10 9 A J 3 2 K 3 K J 10 6

10.	K 9 7 Q J J 6 3 2 A J 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 10 8 5 3 K 5 K 5 4 10 9 8
J 11 10 11 10 11	Q 6 4 A 4 3 2 A Q 7 K Q 7

Simulation 8Z12   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt III

19.	Q 8 6 J 5 4 K 7 3 A 8 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 10 9 7 4 Q 2 J 4 Q 10 5
J 7 10 12 10 12	5 3 A K 3 A Q 6 5 2 K J 9

24.	K 9 4 4 3 2 K Q 7 3 2 J 10
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 10 8 7 5 Q 4 K Q 9 8 7
J 7 10 10 10 10	6 3 A K J 5 A J 6 5 A 6 5

30.	Q 4 4 3 A Q 7 6 3 2 K 9 8
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 10 8 6 3 J J 4 Q J 7 5
J 7 10 12 10 12	9 7 5 A K Q 5 2 K 5 A 10 6

36.	K 10 6 K 2 7 5 3 K 10 9 8 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 9 8 7 A 3 K Q 6 4 2 A 7
J 9 10 9 10 7	A 5 4 3 Q J 5 4 A J Q J 6

51.	K 9 7 4 2 A K 7 3 2 Q J 9
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 6 5 3 A K Q 5 6 5 10 7 5
J 13 10 8 10 13	A Q 8 4 J 3 Q J 4 A K 8 6

55.	A 9 7 4 4 3 2 K 5 3 A 9 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 8 6 J A Q 7 6 4 K 10 7
J 9 10 9 10 8	K 5 3 A K Q 5 J 2 Q J 8 5

58.	K 9 K J 7 5 4 3 2 K 9 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 7 6 5 4 3 Q 4 A 6 A 10
J 8 10 11 10 11	A 8 A 5 3 2 K Q J Q J 8 5

72.	9 7 4 A K J 3 K 4 3 Q 8 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 10 8 6 3 5 7 2 K J 10 9
J 7 10 11 10 11	Q 5 Q 4 2 A Q J 6 5 A 7 5

88.	A 9 7 K 4 3 6 3 2 A 9 8 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 6 5 3 5 2 A 5 Q J 10
J 7 10 11 10 11	10 4 A Q J K Q J 7 4 K 7 5

92.	Q 8 7 2 Q J 6 4 A J 10 9 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 9 5 3 A K 4 3 K 7 K 7 5
J 10 10 8 10 10	A K 6 4 Q J 5 A 5 3 2 Q 8

Simulation 8Z12   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt III

100.	A 6 4 Q A J 4 2 Q 10 9 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 9 8 5 3 A K J 2 7 5 3 6
J 10 10 8 10 10	Q 10 7 5 4 3 K Q 6 A K J 8

103.	10 8 5 A Q 5 K J 7 4 K 10 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 7 6 3 3 2 A 2 J 9 8 6
J 8 10 10 10 10	K 9 4 K J 4 Q 6 5 3 A Q 5

107.	A 9 3 K J 5 3 J 5 3 Q 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 10 6 5 A 4 Q 6 4 10 9 7
J 8 10 10 10 10	8 7 4 Q 2 A K 7 2 A K J 8

124.	A 8 3 5 3 K Q 6 3 J 9 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 10 5 A K Q 4 7 2 10 8 5
J 9 10 8 10 9	9 7 6 4 J 2 A J 5 4 A K Q

133.	7 4 3 J 3 2 K J K Q J 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 8 6 A 5 A Q 6 5 2 9 5
J 10 10 10 10 7	A K 9 5 K Q 4 7 4 3 A 10 8

136.	8 7 3 Q 5 4 K Q J 5 3 J 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 9 5 A J 3 2 A K 10 9 7
J 8 10 9 10 9	A K 6 4 K 2 A 7 6 4 Q 8 6

140.	K Q 9 J 5 2 K 6 5 4 3 K 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 10 7 5 4 Q J A J 10 8 6 5
J 8 10 9 10 9	8 6 4 3 A K Q 3 A 7 2 Q 9

149.	K 6 5 4 2 Q J 6 K 8 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 9 3 K Q J 5 K 5 4 A 9
J 9 10 8 10 9	A 8 7 4 A 3 A 7 3 2 Q J 10

158.	7 6 5 2 A K 7 6 2 K Q 8 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 9 8 4 A K Q 5 3 5 3 9 7
J 13 10 8 10 12	A K 10 3 J 4 Q J 4 A J 10 5

160.	Q 5 Q 5 3 A 6 4 2 A J 10 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 10 7 6 3 J 2 5 3 Q 8 5
J 7 10 11 10 11	9 8 4 A K 4 K Q J 7 K 9 6

Simulation 8Z12   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt III

161.	Q 9 J 4 5 4 2 A K J 10 9 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 10 6 5 3 A K Q 5 J 7 6 6
J 11 10 8 10 12	A 8 7 4 3 2 A K Q 3 Q 8 7

163.	10 7 A K Q Q 6 5 3 10 9 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 9 5 5 4 3 K J 2 Q J 8
J 9 10 9 10 8	A 8 6 4 3 J 2 A 7 4 A K 7

165.	10 9 3 5 3 A 6 3 2 K Q J 9
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 6 5 4 A J 2 K 4 7 6
J 7 10 9 10 8	A 7 K Q 4 Q J 7 5 A 10 8 5

166.	K 7 6 Q J J 7 5 4 Q 9 8 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 9 5 3 A 5 4 3 A 6 K 10
J 9 10 8 10 10	A 8 4 K 2 K Q 3 2 A J 6 5

169.	7 5 Q 5 3 J 5 2 A Q 10 9 8
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 10 8 6 4 A 4 A 3 J 6 5
J 6 10 8 10 10	A 9 3 K J 2 K Q 7 6 4 K 7

175.	Q 8 6 4 Q 5 3 J 7 2 K Q 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 7 5 3 A J K Q 6 4 3 A 6
J 10 10 10 10 7	A K 9 K 4 2 A 5 J 10 9 8 5

177.	K 5 4 K J K J 6 5 9 8 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 9 6 3 Q 5 2 A 3 2 A 7
J 8 10 10 10 10	A 8 7 A 4 3 Q 7 4 K Q J 10

201.	7 4 Q 5 A J 6 4 K Q 8 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 6 5 3 K J 4 2 5 3 2 A 10
J 12 10 8 10 12	A Q 10 9 8 A 3 K Q 7 J 9 5

209.	Q 7 6 Q J 7 6 2 A Q 8 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 10 8 3 K J 5 2 A 3 J 10 7
J 10 10 8 10 10	A 9 5 4 A 4 3 K Q 5 4 K 9

214.	Q 10 9 Q 4 K J 2 J 9 8 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 8 5 4 3 A 5 2 A Q 6 5 3 —
J 10 10 10 10 8	A 7 6 K J 3 7 4 A K Q 10 5

Simulation 8Z12   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt III

219.	A 4 3 4 3 2 Q J 7 2 A J 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 10 8 6 5 K Q 5 A 6 4 10 9
J 10 10 8 10 11	Q 9 7 A J K 5 3 K Q 8 7 5

221.	10 8 6 A J 2 4 3 K Q 10 8 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 9 4 5 4 3 A K Q 7 5 9 5
J 11 10 11 10 8	A Q 7 5 3 K Q J 6 2 A J 6

226.	A 8 4 5 4 A 6 2 K J 9 8 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		9 7 6 3 A K 3 2 Q J 7 5 Q
J 11 10 8 10 11	K Q 10 5 Q J K 4 3 A 10 6 5

233.	A 5 4 J 5 2 4 3 A Q J 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		9 6 3 Q 4 3 A K Q 7 5 10 6
J 12 10 12 10 8	K Q 10 8 7 A K J 6 2 K 9 8

234.	A 7 6 4 Q J 4 6 4 3 K 9 8
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 9 8 3 2 Q J 7 2 A J 7
J 8 10 10 10 10	10 5 A K 5 3 A K 5 Q 10 6 5

236.	A 6 5 K Q 4 3 4 3 2 9 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 10 4 3 A J Q J 6 5 10 7
J 8 10 9 10 9	9 8 7 5 2 A K 7 A K Q J 8

242.	Q 9 4 K Q J 5 J 5 4 10 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 8 3 4 K Q 7 3 2 A Q 9 7
J 10 10 10 10 7	K 10 7 6 5 A 3 2 A 6 K J 8

257.	A 10 5 Q J 5 J 4 3 2 K 8 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 9 8 3 K 3 K Q 7 10 6 5
J 8 10 9 10 9	7 6 4 A 4 2 A 6 5 A Q J 9

271.	Q 8 7 J 3 Q 6 5 4 A J 10 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 6 4 3 A 2 A K J 7 Q 9 5
J 10 10 10 10 8	A K 9 5 K Q 5 4 3 2 K 8 7

285.	Q 9 7 3 Q J 5 K 7 3 Q 9 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		8 6 4 A K 2 A Q J 6 10 6 5
J 9 10 8 10 7	A K 10 5 4 3 5 4 2 A K J 8

Simulation 8Z12   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt III

297.	10 8 Q 4 K Q J 7 5 4 J 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q 6 5 3 K 5 3 3 K 10 8
J 7 10 12 10 12	9 7 4 A J 2 A 6 2 A Q 9 7

317.	10 3 Q J 2 A K 7 4 9 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 6 5 4 — Q 6 5 2 A J 10
J 7 10 10 10 10	A 9 7 A K 5 4 3 J 3 K Q 8

323.	K 7 3 Q 5 7 6 2 K Q 9 8 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 6 5 K J 2 Q J 4 3 J 7
J 10 10 8 10 9	10 9 8 4 A 4 3 A K 5 A 10 6

326.	7 A 5 4 K 6 5 4 3 K J 10 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 10 8 6 3 Q 3 2 A J 9 8
J 8 10 11 10 11	K 9 5 4 K J Q 7 2 A Q 6 5

330.	K 9 7 J 3 J 6 4 2 A J 10 8
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 6 5 Q 4 2 A 7 3 9 7
J 8 10 9 10 10	10 4 3 A K 5 K Q 5 K Q 6 5

334.	10 4 3 5 4 A K J A 10 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		9 6 5 A K J 2 Q 7 6 2 J 8
J 13 10 8 10 13	A K Q 8 7 Q 3 5 4 3 K Q 9

341.	K 10 4 A K 4 3 2 K 10 9 8 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 9 8 6 5 3 2 J 6 5 A 7
J 8 10 11 10 11	7 5 3 Q J 4 A K Q 7 Q J 6

342.	9 7 6 K J A K Q 6 J 10 8 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 8 5 A Q 4 2 4 3 2 Q 6
J 11 10 8 10 11	A K 4 3 5 3 J 7 5 A K 9 7

359.	7 6 Q 2 A K 7 6 4 3 J 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q 10 8 5 5 Q 2 K 9 8 5
J 7 10 9 10 9	9 4 3 A K J 4 3 J 5 A Q 10

373.	Q 9 5 K 4 2 Q J 7 4 Q 8 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 10 6 4 3 Q 5 3 A 6 A J 6
J 8 10 10 10 10	A 8 7 A J K 5 3 2 K 10 9 5

Simulation 8Z12   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt III

378.	10 8 Q 5 3 A Q 6 J 8 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q 9 6 3 J 4 5 4 2 K 9
J 7 10 12 10 12	7 5 4 A K 2 K J 7 3 A Q 10

382.	6 5 4 A 5 5 2 K Q J 8 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 8 3 Q 4 2 A K J 7 6 4 —
J 12 10 12 10 7	A K 9 7 K J 3 Q 3 A 10 9 5

385.	K 8 4 K Q 5 3 2 K 9 8 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 9 7 6 3 A 4 2 Q 7 6 4 —
J 6 10 10 10 10	10 5 J 5 3 A K J A Q J 10 6

400.	K 6 5 3 K J 5 A 4 2 J 9 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 10 9 4 3 2 K 7 K 10 8 7
J 8 10 10 10 10	8 7 A Q 4 Q J 6 5 3 A Q 5

401.	K 6 4 J 4 A Q 7 5 4 9 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 9 8 7 5 A K Q 3 K 3 J 10
J 9 10 8 10 9	A Q 3 5 2 J 6 2 A K Q 8 7

403.	Q 8 4 Q J 4 J 7 2 K J 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 10 6 3 2 K Q 6 5 4 A 10 7
J 10 10 10 10 8	A 9 7 5 A K 5 3 A 3 Q 9 8

414.	3 A 5 3 K Q 6 4 2 9 8 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q 9 7 6 5 J 4 7 5 Q J
J 6 10 12 10 12	10 8 4 K Q 2 A J 3 A K 10 6

427.	9 4 A 5 2 A Q J 9 8 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 10 8 6 5 Q 3 J 6 4 3 A
J 8 10 12 10 12	A 7 3 K J 4 K 7 5 2 K Q 10

428.	7 6 5 K K J 5 2 A Q 10 8 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 10 9 8 A J 3 2 6 4 K 9 7
J 10 10 8 10 11	A Q 4 3 Q 5 4 A Q 7 3 J 5

436.	7 5 4 K 3 K 3 2 K 10 9 8 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 10 9 8 6 Q 2 Q 6 4 Q J
J 7 10 12 10 12	Q 3 A J 5 4 A J 7 5 A 7 5

Simulation 8Z12   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt III

441.	K 9 6 5 K J 6 5 K 9 8 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 7 5 3 K 4 3 2 3 2 A 10
J 8 10 11 10 11	10 8 4 A Q J A Q 7 4 Q J 6

454.	K Q 8 5 3 2 A Q 4 3 10 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		7 6 5 4 3 K Q 4 7 5 A Q J
J 9 10 8 10 9	A 10 9 A J K J 6 2 K 9 8 5

460.	Q 6 5 A K 3 2 J 5 4 J 9 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 8 7 4 3 5 7 3 2 A 10 6
J 6 10 10 10 10	10 9 Q J 4 A K Q 6 K Q 8 5

462.	10 7 4 A Q 4 2 J 5 4 K J 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 6 3 — K Q 7 3 Q 10 8 7
J 9 10 9 10 8	K 9 5 K J 5 3 A 6 2 A 9 6

469.	Q 6 4 K 5 J 5 4 K 10 9 8 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 9 5 3 A Q J 3 Q 7 6 3 A
J 11 10 7 10 11	A K 8 7 4 2 A K 2 Q J 6 5

476.	Q 7 3 A 5 2 K Q 7 2 8 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 10 6 5 J 4 J 6 Q J 9 7
J 8 10 10 10 10	9 8 4 K Q 3 A 5 4 3 A K 10

478.	9 5 5 3 2 K 7 3 2 A Q J 9
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 10 8 6 4 K A 6 5 10 7 5
J 8 10 11 10 11	A 7 3 A Q J 4 Q J 4 K 8 6

495.	8 7 5 K 4 3 A 7 5 4 K Q 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 9 6 4 3 Q J 6 2 10 6 5
J 7 10 10 10 10	Q 10 A 5 2 K Q J 3 A J 9 8

496.	A 9 6 4 A 5 3 K J 3 9 8 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 10 8 3 J 4 7 4 2 A Q 6
J 8 10 11 10 11	7 5 K Q 2 A Q 6 5 K J 10 7

497.	A Q 9 J 5 A Q 7 3 2 9 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		7 6 5 4 3 A K Q 2 J 6 8 6
J 13 10 8 10 13	K 10 8 4 3 K 5 4 A K Q J 10

Simulation 8Z12   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt III

501.	K 4 Q 4 2 J 7 6 K Q 9 8 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 9 8 7 6 3 A 3 Q 2 J 10
J 5 10 11 10 11	10 5 K J 5 A K 5 4 3 A 7 5

503.	8 7 3 J A J 7 2 A J 10 7 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 6 5 A Q 5 3 K 6 Q 8 5
J 10 10 8 10 11	A K 9 4 K 4 2 Q 5 4 3 K 9

504.	Q 9 7 6 J 4 2 K 7 3 K Q 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 10 8 4 3 Q A Q J 4 9 8 7
J 9 10 9 10 8	A 5 A K 5 3 6 5 2 A J 10 5

508.	A 6 3 A 3 2 K 7 6 J 10 7 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 9 7 5 4 5 4 A Q J 3 9 8
J 9 10 9 10 8	Q 10 8 K Q J 5 4 2 A K Q 6

516.	A 7 3 3 2 5 3 2 A Q 9 8 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 9 6 4 A J 5 4 J 7 4 K J
J 10 10 8 10 10	Q 10 8 5 K Q A K Q 6 10 7 6

536.	K 7 4 K J A K 7 5 4 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		8 6 5 3 A Q 4 2 6 3 A 10 8
J 11 10 7 10 11	A Q 10 9 5 3 Q J 2 K Q J 9

538.	A 9 3 K 5 2 Q J 7 6 5 9 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 10 8 4 4 3 K 3 2 K Q 8
J 8 10 10 10 10	7 6 5 A Q J A 4 A J 10 6 5

544.	5 3 Q 3 A J 5 3 2 K 9 8 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 9 8 A K 5 2 Q 6 J 10 7
J 12 10 8 10 12	A K 7 6 4 J 4 K 7 4 A Q 5

548.	Q 6 4 A K J 5 4 2 A 10 8 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 9 8 3 4 A K Q 7 3 J 7 5
J 12 10 12 10 8	A K 7 5 Q 5 3 2 J 6 K Q 9

569.	7 5 4 K 4 2 J 6 5 3 A J 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 9 6 3 A J 5 Q 7 K 10 8
J 8 10 9 10 9	A 10 8 Q 3 A K 4 2 Q 9 7 6

Simulation 8Z12   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt III

9991.	K 9 4 3 2 J 5 4 A J 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 8 7 6 5 3 A K J Q 3 10 9
J 9 10 9 10 10	Q 10 4 Q 5 A K 7 6 2 K Q 8

9992.	K 7 3 A J J 3 2 A 10 7 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 10 9 6 5 Q 4 2 7 6 Q J
J 7 10 12 10 12	8 4 K 5 3 A K Q 5 4 K 9 8

9993.	7 6 4 A 5 4 7 3 2 A K 10 9
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 8 5 3 J A K 6 Q J 8 7
J 8 10 10 10 10	A K 9 K Q 3 2 Q J 5 4 6 5

9994.	K 7 3 J 5 3 K 7 4 A K 10 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 10 9 5 4 K 4 2 Q 6 5 3 J
J 13 10 13 10 13	A 8 6 A Q A J 2 Q 9 8 7 5

9995.	10 8 4 Q J 3 K J 3 K Q J 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 9 7 6 5 A 2 4 2 8 6 5
J 10 10 11 10 11	K 3 K 5 4 A Q 7 6 5 A 10 9

9996.	7 6 3 K 4 3 K 7 6 4 A 10 8
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 8 4 A 5 Q J 3 K Q 9 6 5
J 11 10 11 10 11	A K Q 9 5 Q J 2 A 5 2 J 7

9997.	A 9 6 A 4 3 K J 5 2 10 9 6
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 7 4 3 Q 5 2 Q 7 Q J 8 5
J 12 10 12 10 12	Q 10 8 5 K J A 6 4 3 A K 7

9998.	Q 7 5 A Q 3 K Q 5 10 9 6 5
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		10 9 3 K 2 A J 6 2 Q J 8 7
J 10 10 10 10 10	A K 8 6 4 J 5 4 7 4 3 A K

9999.	Q 8 5 K 5 4 A 3 2 Q 10 8 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 10 9 7 4 A 3 2 7 6 5 A 5
J 9 10 10 10 10	K 6 3 Q J K Q J 4 K J 9 6

10000.	10 9 8 Q J A Q 7 5 K J 9 7
J 2 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 4 3 5 4 3 J 4 2 Q 10 5
J 11 10 11 10 11	Q 7 6 5 A K 2 K 6 3 A 8 6

Simulation 8Z12   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt III

© 2017 Richard Pavlicek