Simulation 8Z10   Main

Long Suit or Punt I

by Richard Pavlicek

Holding a weak hand against a notrump contract, should you lead your own 5-card suit? Or a short suit hoping to hit partner? The best argument for your own suit is the enemy cards splitting 2-2, allowing your long tricks to be enjoyed without a side entry. The best argument for a short suit is that partner is likely to have side entries, so his suit will be easier to establish — if you guess which. I’m assuming a blind auction, of course, as knowing partner’s long suit would make leading it a no-brainer.

Suppose you are West with the following hand after a typical non-revealing auction:

10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2

West Pass

North 3 NT

East All Pass

South 1 NT

Should you lead the 10, 10 or 10? The main decision for long versus short is between the majors. I threw in the diamond option for a short-suit comparison; i.e., to see whether a slightly better holding in a minor could prevail over a major. Place your bets!

To determine the best lead I created 10,000 random deals with the West hand fixed, and North-South constrained to fit the bidding: South HCP 15-17; freakness less than 3 (balanced); with a 5-card major, doubleton must be J-x or better; North HCP 9-14 (max 14 revalued points); freakness less than 5; no 4-card major unless 4-3-3-3 shape.

What do results say? Holding a weak hand with two safe leads, it is better to lead the shorter suit ( 10) trying to hit partner at any form of scoring, and by a wide margin, especially at total points or IMPs. This assumes that both suits are equally biased (or unbiased) by the enemy bidding, as is the case here for either major. Note however that a safe long major ( 10) is better than a safe short minor ( 10) because the minor is heavily biased to have length in the declaring side. On to Part II.

Results for 10,000 Deals

Lead	Trick Avg	Make Pct	Matchpoints	Nonvul TPs	Nonvul IMPs	Vul TPs	Vul IMPs
10	10.022	85.90	17535 43.84	347070 29.21	8155 30.19	500420 28.49	9403 29.80
10	10.232	91.17	20892 52.23	657920 55.37	14926 55.26	976170 55.59	17483 55.41
10	10.292	92.88	21573 53.93	777370 65.42	17433 64.54	1157670 65.92	20443 64.79

Trick Avg shows the average number of tricks won by declarer. Make Pct shows the percent of time the contract is made. Matchpoints shows the raw total (European style: 2 for a win, 1 for a tie) and effective scoring percent. Total Points and IMPs are shown similarly as raw totals and percents, with separate accountings for N-S nonvulnerable and N-S vulnerable. (Vulnerability does not affect matchpoints.) All numbers are relative to declarer, so lower values indicate better for the defense.

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 10 and last 10, and selected deals in-between where the lead made a significant difference. The number of tricks won by declarer is shown for each lead, assuming double-dummy play by both sides thereafter.

Seed 789ACB63 10000

1.	K Q 3 4 2 K Q 7 6 3 2 7 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		8 7 6 A K 3 5 4 K Q J 8 5
10 13 10 11 10 13	A J 5 4 2 Q J 5 A J A 10 9

2.	A 8 7 5 Q 5 3 5 4 2 A J 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K J 6 2 K 4 Q 7 K Q 9 8 7
10 12 10 12 10 11	Q 4 3 A J 2 A K J 6 3 10 6

3.	7 5 3 Q 5 2 K Q J A Q 10 9
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q J 6 2 K 4 3 5 3 2 6 5
10 11 10 11 10 11	A 8 4 A J A 7 6 4 K J 8 7

4.	A 7 3 K J Q 7 6 5 J 10 9 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q J 8 5 4 2 A J 4 A 8 7 5
10 9 10 10 10 10	K 6 2 A Q 5 4 3 K 3 2 K Q

5.	8 7 2 K 4 Q J 5 4 2 K 9 8
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q J 4 A 5 2 K Q J 10 7 6
10 9 10 10 10 10	A 6 5 3 Q J 3 A 7 6 3 A 5

6.	K Q 4 A 4 Q 6 4 2 J 9 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		J 6 5 Q 3 2 K J 3 A 10 7 6
10 11 10 11 10 11	A 8 7 3 2 K J 5 A 7 5 K Q

7.	Q J 7 2 A J 3 A 5 4 J 10 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 5 4 5 2 Q J 7 3 K Q 9 8
10 9 10 9 10 9	K 8 6 3 K Q 4 K 6 2 A 6 5

8.	A J J 4 3 J 7 6 K J 10 7 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 6 5 3 K Q 2 K 5 2 8
10 10 10 10 10 11	7 4 2 A 5 A Q 4 3 A Q 9 5

9.	A 8 7 K 4 3 J 6 5 4 A J 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 6 5 4 2 Q J Q 7 Q 10 7 5
10 10 10 11 10 11	Q J 3 A 5 2 A K 3 2 K 9 8

10.	A J 8 2 K J 5 2 Q J 9 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 6 4 J 5 4 3 A Q 3 K 10 6
10 10 10 11 10 10	K 7 5 3 2 A K Q 7 6 4 A 7

Simulation 8Z10   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt I

11.	J 8 6 K Q 4 K J 3 2 Q 10 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 5 4 3 A 5 2 7 6 A 8 7
10 7 10 10 10 10	A 7 2 J 3 A Q 5 4 K J 9 5

23.	J 7 4 2 A Q 2 Q 6 2 9 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q 6 J 3 J 7 3 A 10 7 6
10 8 10 9 10 9	8 5 3 K 5 4 A K 5 4 K Q J

25.	K 6 4 J 3 2 K 7 4 3 K 9 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 7 3 K 5 4 A Q 10 7 6
10 8 10 10 10 10	J 5 2 A Q Q J 6 5 2 A J 8

34.	6 5 3 K Q 3 J 7 A 10 8 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A J 2 J 5 A Q 6 5 4 Q J 9
10 10 10 10 10 8	K Q 8 7 4 A 4 2 K 3 2 K 7

43.	7 4 2 A 5 J 7 4 3 A K 10 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q 8 5 J 3 2 Q 5 2 8 5
10 8 10 10 10 10	J 6 3 K Q 4 A K 6 Q J 9 6

50.	8 7 K J 5 Q 7 3 2 Q J 10 9
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q J 4 3 A 4 K 6 4 K 8 6
10 8 10 9 10 9	A 6 5 2 Q 3 2 A J 5 A 7 5

54.	7 6 3 A 5 7 5 4 2 A J 7 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A J 5 4 K Q 4 2 K J 9 8 5
10 10 10 8 10 10	K Q 8 2 J 3 A Q 6 3 K Q 10

73.	6 4 2 Q J 7 5 4 2 A K 9 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 7 5 K 5 4 3 A Q 3 Q 6 5
10 10 10 8 10 11	K Q J 8 3 A 2 K J 6 J 10 8

76.	Q 6 4 Q 4 2 J 7 4 A K 10 9
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 7 3 2 5 3 K Q 5 3 8 6
10 9 10 9 10 8	J 8 5 A K J A 6 2 Q J 7 5

89.	Q 3 Q 4 J 6 5 2 A 10 9 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K J 8 6 5 2 A K 5 3 K J 7
10 8 10 10 10 10	A 7 4 J 3 2 A K Q 7 4 Q 5

Simulation 8Z10   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt I

96.	8 7 4 Q 3 Q 7 6 2 A K 7 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q J 6 5 3 J 2 A 4 3 Q 5
10 8 10 11 10 11	A 2 A K 5 4 K J 5 J 10 9 8

105.	K 8 5 4 2 K Q 7 K 8 7 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A J 7 6 3 K J J 6 4 A 10 9
10 8 10 11 10 11	Q 5 4 2 A Q 3 A 5 3 2 Q J

107.	5 4 3 K Q J 7 3 K 10 9 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 8 6 2 J 2 A 5 4 Q J 7
10 8 10 9 10 9	Q J 7 A Q 5 4 3 K 6 2 A 5

112.	K Q 8 4 3 K 5 4 3 Q 10 7 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A J 6 3 2 A 5 2 A J 6 J 8
10 7 10 9 10 9	7 5 4 K Q J Q 7 2 A K 9 5

113.	5 4 J 5 3 K Q 3 A J 7 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q J 8 3 2 A 4 2 A 7 4 9
10 6 10 8 10 9	A 7 6 K Q J 6 5 2 K Q 10 8

117.	K J 5 3 K Q 5 7 3 2 9 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 4 2 A 3 A Q 6 4 10 6
10 8 10 9 10 9	7 6 J 4 2 K J 5 A K Q J 7

118.	7 2 Q 5 A K J 3 2 J 10 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 6 4 3 A J 3 2 — A 9 8
10 10 10 8 10 10	A J 5 K 4 Q 7 6 5 4 K Q 7

125.	J 6 5 A J 4 2 K J 7 9 8 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 3 2 5 A 4 3 2 A 6 5
10 7 10 10 10 10	A 7 4 K Q 3 Q 6 5 K Q J 10

126.	A 5 J 2 K 7 6 2 Q 10 9 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q J 8 7 2 K 3 A J 5 3 J
10 8 10 9 10 9	6 4 3 A Q 5 4 Q 4 A K 7 6

135.	4 2 A J 5 7 5 2 A 10 9 7 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A J 8 6 3 K 4 3 A J 4 K 8
10 8 10 9 10 10	K Q 7 5 Q 2 K Q 6 3 Q J 6

Simulation 8Z10   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt I

136.	Q 5 3 A 5 2 J 6 4 K 9 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K J 7 2 Q 3 A 3 2 J 10 7
10 7 10 10 10 10	8 6 4 K J 4 K Q 7 5 A Q 5

147.	A K J 4 J 5 3 Q 7 5 J 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		7 5 3 2 K 2 A K J 6 2 10 7
10 12 10 12 10 8	Q 8 6 A Q 4 4 3 A K Q 9 5

155.	7 6 3 K 3 K 4 2 K J 8 7 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q J 4 2 Q J 5 4 A 5 3 A 9
10 10 10 8 10 11	A K 8 5 A 2 Q J 7 6 Q 10 5

157.	K 4 2 A Q J 6 3 2 Q 10 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 7 6 3 J 4 3 A 4 J 7
10 8 10 11 10 11	J 5 K Q 5 2 K 7 5 A K 9 8

174.	Q 7 6 J 3 J 4 2 A Q J 9 8
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K J 4 3 A 2 Q 7 3 10 6 5
10 7 10 10 10 10	8 5 2 K Q 5 4 A K 6 5 K 7

175.	J 8 7 5 Q J 4 K Q 2 9 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q 2 K 5 3 7 4 3 A 10 5
10 8 10 9 10 9	6 4 3 A 2 A J 6 5 K Q J 7

201.	Q J 4 3 A 4 3 7 4 3 A 10 9
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		6 2 K 5 A K J 5 2 Q 8 7 5
10 9 10 9 10 8	A K 8 7 5 Q J 2 Q 6 K J 6

213.	5 4 2 Q 5 4 Q 6 5 3 2 A J
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 8 7 6 K 2 A 7 Q 8 7 6
10 8 10 10 10 10	Q J 3 A J 3 K J 4 K 10 9 5

214.	K 7 4 4 2 A K 7 6 4 3 10 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 8 5 3 K Q J 3 2 A J 9 7
10 10 10 7 10 10	Q J 6 2 A 5 Q J 5 K Q 8 5

231.	J 3 2 K Q K 7 6 5 4 J 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 7 4 J 5 2 A Q 2 Q 10 9
10 8 10 9 10 9	A 8 6 5 A 4 3 J 3 A K 8 7

Simulation 8Z10   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt I

237.	K Q 5 5 4 K 7 5 4 3 Q J 10
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		J 8 7 4 A J 3 2 A 2 K 6 5
10 11 10 8 10 11	A 6 3 2 K Q Q J 6 A 9 8 7

238.	7 6 3 J 4 3 K J 4 A K 10 9
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q 5 4 K 7 6 5 3 7 6 5
10 8 10 10 10 10	J 8 2 A Q 5 2 A Q 2 Q J 8

240.	Q 8 7 K 4 2 J 7 6 Q J 10 8
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K J 6 Q 5 3 K Q 4 2 K 6 5
10 9 10 10 10 8	A 5 4 3 2 A J A 5 3 A 9 7

247.	J 3 K J 5 J 6 4 2 A 10 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 5 2 A Q 7 5 K J 7 6
10 8 10 9 10 9	A 7 6 4 Q 4 3 2 A K 3 Q 9

249.	3 2 A 5 4 J 5 4 3 A Q 10 8
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q J 8 6 J A 7 6 K 7 6 5
10 8 10 9 10 9	A 7 5 4 K Q 3 2 K Q 2 J 9

250.	K Q 8 4 3 7 6 5 K Q 9 7 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 7 6 2 K Q J 2 Q J 4 2 J
10 11 10 8 10 11	J 5 4 3 A 5 A K 3 A 10 8 6

262.	K J 5 3 5 4 3 2 K Q 10 9 8
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 6 4 A Q 4 2 K J 7 5
10 8 10 9 10 9	7 3 2 K J 5 A Q 6 A J 7 6

263.	J 7 3 A K 6 5 4 3 J 7 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 8 4 2 Q 4 3 Q J 2 A K 8
10 9 10 8 10 9	K Q 6 5 J 5 2 A K 7 Q 10 9

268.	Q 6 3 A K 5 6 4 2 9 8 7 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K J 7 2 Q J 3 K 7 5 10 5
10 8 10 10 10 10	8 5 4 4 2 A Q J 3 A K Q J

273.	Q 3 2 K Q 4 3 A 5 4 Q 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K J 8 7 J 5 Q 3 2 9 7 6
10 8 10 11 10 11	6 5 4 A 2 K J 7 6 A K J 10

Simulation 8Z10   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt I

277.	3 5 4 2 K J 6 5 4 A K J 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q J 8 7 2 K A 7 2 10 9 6
10 8 10 12 10 12	A 6 5 4 A Q J 3 Q 3 Q 8 7

278.	K 7 3 Q 3 K Q 7 3 K 9 7 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q J 8 5 2 5 2 4 2 A J 6
10 6 10 11 10 11	6 4 A K J 4 A J 6 5 Q 10 8

291.	K 8 7 4 3 2 K 2 K Q 10 9 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 6 5 2 A J 5 Q J 6 5 J 6
10 11 10 8 10 10	Q J 4 3 K Q A 7 4 3 A 8 5

294.	K 8 2 J 4 3 K Q 6 4 2 9 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q J 6 5 3 A 2 J 5 A 8 5
10 5 10 8 10 10	7 4 K Q 5 A 7 3 K Q J 10 6

300.	K 7 6 A 4 2 Q 6 5 J 10 9 8
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 5 3 2 K J 3 J 4 2 A 7
10 8 10 9 10 9	J 8 4 Q 5 A K 7 3 K Q 6 5

306.	8 7 2 J 4 2 A K A 10 8 7 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q J 5 4 Q 3 6 5 3 J 9
10 7 10 13 10 13	6 3 A K 5 Q J 7 4 2 K Q 6

310.	8 5 4 K Q 5 4 J 6 2 A 10 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K J 7 6 3 3 2 A K K 9 8 7
10 8 10 10 10 10	A Q 2 A J Q 7 5 4 3 Q J 6

311.	8 4 3 Q 3 2 K 4 A J 9 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 5 2 J 5 A Q J 6 5 Q 8
10 11 10 11 10 8	A J 7 6 A K 4 7 3 2 K 10 7

313.	J 8 K 3 2 A 5 4 2 Q J 9 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 7 3 J 5 4 J 7 3 A K 8
10 8 10 9 10 9	A 6 5 4 2 A Q K Q 6 10 7 6

321.	A Q 5 3 5 4 2 K 5 2 9 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		J 8 7 Q J A J 7 4 3 A K 7
10 9 10 9 10 8	K 6 4 2 A K 3 Q 6 Q J 10 6

Simulation 8Z10   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt I

362.	A 3 2 K K J 7 4 K 10 8 7 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 8 7 6 4 A J 5 3 2 5 3 A
10 11 10 8 10 11	K J 5 Q 4 A Q 6 2 Q J 9 6

363.	K 6 2 Q 5 2 A J 7 J 9 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A J 8 5 J 4 K Q 2 Q 10 7 6
10 8 10 9 10 9	Q 7 4 3 A K 3 6 5 4 3 A K

364.	K 5 4 A Q J 2 6 5 2 J 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 6 2 4 3 A J Q 10 9 7
10 8 10 10 10 11	J 7 3 K 5 K Q 7 4 3 A K 8

375.	A 4 2 K 3 J 4 3 2 Q 10 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q J 5 3 A 4 2 A K 7 5 J 8
10 8 10 9 10 9	K 8 7 6 Q J 5 Q 6 A K 9 7

378.	Q 4 2 J 5 K J 7 6 5 K 9 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K J 7 6 5 A 4 Q 4 2 A J 6
10 8 10 10 10 10	A 8 3 K Q 3 2 A 3 Q 10 8 5

381.	7 5 4 Q 5 3 A K J 7 5 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q J 3 2 6 4 2 K Q 7 5
10 8 10 10 10 10	8 6 2 A K J 4 Q 3 A J 10 9

385.	J 6 5 5 4 K 6 5 3 K Q J 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 7 3 K J 3 2 J 7 A 10
10 8 10 10 10 10	A 4 2 A Q A Q 4 2 9 8 6 5

386.	5 4 Q 5 A J 4 2 Q 10 8 7 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q J 8 7 3 A 4 K 7 5 K J 6
10 8 10 9 10 9	A K 6 2 K J 3 2 Q 6 3 A 9

388.	6 3 K J 5 7 6 5 3 A J 10 9
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K J 8 5 4 3 A Q 2 Q 8 6
10 8 10 10 10 10	Q 7 4 2 A Q 2 K J 4 K 7 5

402.	4 3 2 5 3 6 5 A K Q 8 7 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K Q J 6 4 2 K Q J 4 3 10
10 8 10 11 10 11	8 7 5 A K Q J A 7 2 J 9 6

Simulation 8Z10   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt I

407.	Q 6 A 5 2 J 7 4 3 2 A K 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K J 8 4 3 2 4 A 6 Q J 10 6
10 8 10 12 10 12	A 7 5 K Q J 3 K Q 5 9 8 5

408.	8 2 K J K Q J 7 5 3 J 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q J 7 6 5 4 3 A Q 3 A 10 6
10 11 10 7 10 11	A K 5 4 2 6 4 2 A K Q 9 7

411.	K J 2 K 3 Q J 7 10 9 8 7 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 7 6 4 5 2 A 6 2 A J
10 6 10 10 10 10	5 3 A Q J 4 K 5 4 3 K Q 6

418.	Q 6 J 4 2 K J 6 4 K J 9 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A J 8 7 3 2 A 3 A 5 3 10 8
10 6 10 10 10 10	K 5 4 K Q 5 Q 7 2 A Q 7 5

422.	K 8 2 K 4 Q 7 4 3 2 J 9 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 7 6 3 A Q J 2 J Q 8 6 5
10 11 10 7 10 11	Q J 5 4 5 3 A K 6 5 A K 10

437.	K J 5 Q J 2 J 7 6 K Q J 9
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		7 6 4 3 2 3 A K Q 5 4 8 6
10 11 10 11 10 8	A Q 8 A K 5 4 3 2 A 10 7 5

450.	A 8 4 K Q 5 Q J 5 4 8 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		J 7 6 3 2 A J 6 3 A K 10 7
10 8 10 9 10 9	K Q 5 4 3 2 A K 7 2 Q J 9

455.	K 5 4 A Q 5 4 3 J 10 8 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 3 2 J 3 A K Q 6 5 2 Q 9
10 13 10 13 10 7	A J 8 7 6 K 4 2 J 7 A K 7

456.	J 3 2 Q 5 2 K 5 2 K J 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 8 7 6 3 A Q 7 6 A Q 7 5
10 9 10 9 10 8	A Q 5 4 A K J 4 J 4 3 10 9

462.	A 8 2 3 Q 5 4 3 2 K 7 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q J 5 4 K Q J 2 J 7 A 10 8
10 11 10 8 10 11	K 7 6 3 A 5 4 A K 6 Q J 9

Simulation 8Z10   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt I

467.	A 5 2 4 3 J 5 4 A 10 9 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q J 7 6 K J 5 A 2 J 7 5
10 8 10 12 10 12	8 4 3 A Q 2 K Q 7 6 3 K Q

476.	J 8 2 K 4 3 K 5 2 Q 10 9 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 5 3 5 A Q J 4 3 A 7 6
10 9 10 9 10 6	A 7 6 4 A Q J 2 7 6 K J 8

491.	K 3 Q 5 3 A Q 6 J 10 7 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q J 7 5 2 K 4 2 J 5 2 9
10 7 10 11 10 11	8 6 4 A J K 7 4 3 A K Q 8

494.	Q J K 3 2 K 7 3 2 9 7 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 8 7 6 5 A Q A 6 5 Q 10 8
10 8 10 9 10 9	A 4 3 2 J 5 4 Q J 4 A K J

498.	Q 5 4 5 2 Q 6 4 2 A J 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K J 6 3 2 Q J J 7 Q 7 5
10 7 10 10 10 10	8 7 A K 4 3 A K 5 3 K 10 9

508.	8 6 5 A J 5 3 K 6 5 K J 8
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K J 3 2 2 7 4 3 2 A 10 9
10 8 10 10 10 10	Q 7 4 K Q 4 A Q J Q 7 6 5

511.	Q 7 3 5 3 K 5 3 A 10 8 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 5 4 2 A Q 4 2 Q J 4 K 9
10 11 10 8 10 10	A J 8 6 K J A 7 6 2 Q J 7

514.	7 6 3 A J Q J 6 5 3 K 10 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q J 4 2 Q 3 2 A J 9 8 6
10 8 10 9 10 10	K 8 5 K 5 4 2 A K 7 4 Q 7

521.	J 6 2 Q J 2 Q J Q 9 7 6 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 8 7 4 A 5 A 7 6 5 3 A 10
10 9 10 8 10 7	K Q 5 3 K 4 3 K 4 2 K J 8

523.	A Q J 2 K 5 2 J 3 2 10 9 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		6 5 4 3 Q A K Q 6 4 Q 8 6
10 11 10 11 10 8	K 8 7 A J 4 3 7 5 A K J 5

Simulation 8Z10   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt I

9991.	Q 8 3 J J 4 3 2 A K J 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A J 6 5 4 2 K 5 4 3 K Q 9
10 12 10 12 10 12	K 7 A Q 2 A Q 7 6 5 10 7 5

9992.	J 3 2 Q J 4 A 4 2 A J 10 9
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A K 6 4 5 3 K J 6 8 7 6 5
10 10 10 10 10 10	Q 8 7 5 A K 2 Q 7 5 3 K Q

9993.	A 8 4 J 5 3 Q 7 6 4 K 7 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 7 6 5 3 K 2 A K 3 J 10 8
10 9 10 10 10 10	Q J 2 A Q 4 J 5 2 A Q 9 5

9994.	7 5 3 2 A 4 3 A 7 6 K Q 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		Q 6 4 Q J 2 4 3 2 A J 9 5
10 11 10 11 10 11	A K J 8 K 5 K Q J 5 10 8 6

9995.	4 3 2 K 4 3 A J 7 K J 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K Q 8 7 Q 2 K Q 6 5 3 10 7
10 11 10 11 10 9	A J 6 5 A J 5 4 2 A Q 9 6

9996.	A K 8 K 2 J 6 3 2 J 9 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		J 7 6 4 A 4 3 K 7 4 K 10 6
10 11 10 11 10 11	Q 5 3 2 Q J 5 A Q 5 A Q 7

9997.	6 5 3 Q A K Q 5 3 10 9 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A Q 8 7 4 2 K J 3 2 4 Q 5
10 11 10 10 10 11	K J A 5 4 J 7 6 2 A K J 7

9998.	Q 8 6 Q J A K J 5 4 10 9 7
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		A 7 4 3 2 5 4 2 Q 7 A 8 6
10 11 10 11 10 11	K J 5 A K 3 6 3 2 K Q J 5

9999.	J 7 6 K 4 A 5 4 3 2 Q 8 5
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		K 8 2 A J 3 Q J 6 K J 10 9
10 9 10 9 10 9	A Q 5 4 3 Q 5 2 K 7 A 7 6

10000.	K Q J K 3 4 3 Q J 10 9 8 6
10 9 10 9 8 7 6 10 9 8 4 3 2		7 6 5 4 2 Q J 5 Q J 7 A K
10 11 10 10 10 10	A 8 3 A 4 2 A K 6 5 2 7 5

Simulation 8Z10   Main

Top   Long Suit or Punt I

© 2017 Richard Pavlicek