Simulation 8Z23 Main

Notrump or Five Diamonds?

by Richard Pavlicek

An occasional bidding problem occurs when partner opens 2 NT and you hold a weak hand with a long minor suit. Few systems allow any means to stop in a minor-suit partscore — and rightfully so — so the inevitable choices are to pass, raise to 3 NT, or bid game in your minor. None of these is appealing, so it’s more like choosing the least of evils.

Marion Gebhardt of Richardson, Texas, asked how to bid the following hand after partner opens 2 NT (20-21 HCP):

Table
4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

West
North
2 NT East
Pass South
?

Should South pass, raise to 3 NT, or bid 5 ?

On a good day partner will have A-K-x, and 3 NT will make in a breeze (unless you’re off five tricks first); and 3 NT will usually have chances opposite any three diamonds. But if partner’s doubleton is diamonds, it could be a dismal ride, as even 2 NT will usually fail. For this reason many players would exclude passing, figuring that if you’re going to play notrump, you might as well get the game bonus when it’s right.

Vulnerability and form of scoring are also significant. Rather than stipulate which, the simulation I am about to run will provide data for all cases.

To compare options I created 10,000 random deals with the South hand fixed. North 20-21 HCP, balanced, which may include a 5-card major if the doubleton is at least J-x. Further, to eliminate deals likely to breed interference, East playing tricks less than 7 or freakness less than 6; i.e., East would require 7+ playing tricks and extreme shape to interfere. Likewise for West.

Results may be surprising, particularly that raising to 3 NT is the worst choice — at any form of scoring and any vulnerability. The truth is that undertricks matter, so it doesn’t pay to try for the gold ring when the success rate is so low. Passing is the winning choice at matchpoints, but at IMPS (or total points) the edge clearly goes to 5 .

In practice I think the IMP advantage of 5 would be less, because opener needs an exceptional hand to succeed, and with some of those hands he would continue to 6 . Certainly, a typical 5 bid would be at least a king better than the actual hand. If you contend that opener is forced to pass 5 , you will lose some nice slams in other cases.

Results for 10,000 Deals
Contract Trick Avg Make Pct Matchpoints Nonvul TPs Nonvul IMPs Vul TPs Vul IMPs
2 NT 7.208 38.66 26258 65.65 1231710 44.69 38633 52.91 1879860 41.39 51544 51.36
3 NT 7.208 19.25 10553 26.38 1073040 38.93 25234 34.56 1801740 39.67 36057 35.93
5 9.817 21.50 23189 57.97 1829810 66.38 45652 62.53 3131860 68.95 62937 62.71

Results for 10,000 Deals
Contract	Trick Avg	Make Pct	Matchpoints	Nonvul TPs	Nonvul IMPs	Vul TPs	Vul IMPs
2 NT	7.208	38.66	26258 65.65	1231710 44.69	38633 52.91	1879860 41.39	51544 51.36
3 NT	7.208	19.25	10553 26.38	1073040 38.93	25234 34.56	1801740 39.67	36057 35.93
5	9.817	21.50	23189 57.97	1829810 66.38	45652 62.53	3131860 68.95	62937 62.71

Trick Avg shows the average number of tricks won by declarer. Make Pct shows the percent of time the contract is made. Matchpoints shows the raw total (European style: 2 for a win, 1 for a tie) and effective scoring percent. Total Points and IMPs are shown similarly as raw totals and percents, with separate accountings for N-S nonvulnerable and N-S vulnerable. (Vulnerability does not affect matchpoints.)

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 10 and last 10, and selected deals in-between where the choice of contract made a significant difference. The number of tricks won for each contract assumes double-dummy play by both sides. Note that North declares 2 NT or 3 NT, and South declares 5 .

Seed B7A9D2F3 10000

1. A K 7 2
K 8 3
A 7
A Q 9 4
J 10 8
J 10 7 6 4 2
8 2
J 10 Table Q 9 6 5
A Q 9
K J 3
K 7 5
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

2. Q J
A K 10 8
A J 2
A Q 10 4
A K 9 5 2
6 4
K 8 3
K 9 5 Table 10 8 7 6
Q J 9 7 3 2
7
J 7
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

3. Q 9 8 6
Q J
A K J
A K 10 5
J 10 2
K 10 7 6 3
7
Q J 7 4 Table A K 7 5
A 9 8 4 2
8 3 2
9
2 NT 5
3 NT 5
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

4. A K 10 7
Q 4 3
A K J
K 9 7
9 6 5
K J 10 8 7
7
Q J 10 4 Table Q J 8 2
A 9 6 2
8 3 2
A 5
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

5. A Q J 2
A 10 6
A K
K 7 5 4
10 9 8 6
K J 8
J 7 2
A J 9 Table K 7 5
Q 9 7 4 3 2
8 3
Q 10
2 NT 5
3 NT 5
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

6. A Q 9
A Q 8 6
A K J 3
10 5
K 10 2
10 4 3 2
8 7 2
K Q J Table J 8 7 6 5
K J 9 7
—
A 9 7 4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

7. A Q 10
A J 9 6
A 7
A Q 9 7
9 5 2
10 7 4 3
K 8 2
K J 10 Table K J 8 7 6
K Q 8 2
J 3
5 4
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

8. A J
Q 9 3
A K J 7 3
K Q 9
Q 8 7 6 5
A K 10 7
2
J 5 4 Table K 10 9 2
J 8 6 4 2
8
A 10 7
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

9. A K J
A J 9 7
A 8 2
A 5 4
10 9 7 6 5
K 10 6 4 3
J
K 7 Table Q 8 2
Q 8 2
K 7 3
Q J 10 9
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

10. A Q
A Q 9 8 4
A K 7
Q 5 4
J 10 9 8 2
K 6 3
J 8 3
A K Table K 7 6 5
J 10 7 2
2
J 10 9 7
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

13. A K J 8
8 4 2
A K J 2
A 5
5 2
K Q 10 9 7
7
Q J 10 7 4 Table Q 10 9 7 6
A J 6 3
8 3
K 9
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

19. Q J 9
A K 9
A 8 3
A K 7 5
10 6 5 2
Q 8 6 4 2
K 7 2
Q Table A K 8 7
J 10 7 3
J
J 10 9 4
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

21. 10 7
A K 6
A J 7 3
A K Q 7
K Q J 2
J 10 9 4 2
K 2
9 5 Table A 9 8 6 5
Q 8 7 3
8
J 10 4
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

26. A Q 9 7
A 9 3
A 8 3
A K 5
K J 6 5
K 7 6 2
J 2
J 10 7 Table 10 8 2
Q J 10 8 4
K 7
Q 9 4
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

29. K Q J 5
A 10 7
K J
A Q 10 5
A 9 2
K 6 4 3 2
8 2
K J 4 Table 10 8 7 6
Q J 9 8
A 7 3
9 7
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

31. K 9 8
A Q 7 2
A K 2
A 10 5
Q J 7 6
10 4
J 3
Q J 9 7 4 Table A 10 5 2
K J 9 8 6 3
8 7
K
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

32. Q J 10 6 5
A K 10
K 3
A K 5
K 9 8
Q J 6 4 3 2
2
J 10 4 Table A 7 2
9 8 7
A J 8 7
Q 9 7
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

35. A Q 10 2
K 10
A K 3
A 10 9 4
K 9 8 7 6
9 8 6 4 3
7 2
5 Table J 5
A Q J 7 2
J 8
K Q J 7
2 NT 10
3 NT 10
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

38. A 7 2
K 7 2
A K 8 3
A K 10
Q 10 9 5
J 10 8 6 3
7
J 9 7 Table K J 8 6
A Q 9 4
J 2
Q 5 4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

39. A J 10
A K 9 3
A 3
A J 10 9
9 7 6 5 2
Q 10 2
8 7
Q 7 5 Table K Q 8
J 8 7 6 4
K J 2
K 4
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

46. K J 5
A K J 6 4
A K 2
Q 9
10 8 2
10 3 2
J 8 3
A J 7 5 Table A Q 9 7 6
Q 9 8 7
7
K 10 4
2 NT 4
3 NT 4
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

50. K Q 2
Q J 9
A K 7 3
A J 5
A 10 9 8 7
K 4 3 2
8
K 9 4 Table J 6 5
A 10 8 7 6
J 2
Q 10 7
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

51. J 10 5
A K J 9
A 7 2
A K 9
Q 8 7
Q 8 4 2
K 8 3
Q 7 5 Table A K 9 6 2
10 7 6 3
J
J 10 4
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

55. A 10 8 7
A 9 3
A K J
A 10 5
K J 6
K 7 6 4 2
7 2
K 7 4 Table Q 9 5 2
Q J 10 8
8 3
Q J 9
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

56. A 9 5
A 9 3
A K J 7
A 7 5
K J 10 8
J 10 7 6 2
2
K J 10 Table Q 7 6 2
K Q 8 4
8 3
Q 9 4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

57. Q 7 5
A Q 10
A J
A K J 9 5
10 8
9 8 7 6 4 2
K 7 3
Q 4 Table A K J 9 6 2
K J 3
8 2
10 7
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

58. A K Q 2
K 7 2
A J
K J 10 5
J 9 7 6 5
A Q 8
K 8
A Q 9 Table 10 8
J 10 9 6 4 3
7 3 2
7 4
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

59. K 6 2
A K Q 7
A J 2
K 5 4
Q 10 8 5
8 6 4 3 2
K
J 9 7 Table A J 9 7
J 10 9
8 7 3
A Q 10
2 NT 10
3 NT 10
5 8 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

64. K 7 2
A K 3
K J 2
A Q 9 7
A 9 5
Q 10 9 8 7 2
A 7
K J Table Q J 10 8 6
J 6 4
8 3
10 5 4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

65. A K 5
A K Q 10
A J 7
10 5 4
J 9 8 6
J 8 7 6
3
A K Q 7 Table Q 10 7 2
9 4 3 2
K 8 2
J 9
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

69. A Q
A J 10 7
K 8 2
A K 10 9
9 7 5 2
9 6 4 3
J
Q 7 5 4 Table K J 10 8 6
K Q 8 2
A 7 3
J
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

70. J 10 5
A K Q 4
A K 3
A 7 5
A K
J 9 8 6 2
J 7 2
Q J 9 Table Q 9 8 7 6 2
10 7 3
8
K 10 4
2 NT 10
3 NT 10
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

72. K J 9
A K 9 3
A 7 3
K Q 7
Q 7 5 2
8 4 2
J 8 2
J 10 4 Table A 10 8 6
Q J 10 7 6
K
A 9 5
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

73. A K 10 9 6
K Q 6
A K 7
J 9
J 7 2
A J 10 8 7 3
J
A K Q Table Q 8 5
9 4 2
8 3 2
10 7 5 4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

82. Q 9 5
A K J 7 6
A K 3
A 7
J 8 2
10 4 2
J 7
J 10 9 5 4 Table A K 10 7 6
Q 9 8 3
8 2
K Q
2 NT 10
3 NT 10
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

87. A K J
J 9
A 3 2
A K 10 9 7
Q 8 7 5 2
K 3 2
K J 8
Q 4 Table 10 9 6
A Q 10 8 7 6 4
7
J 5
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

93. K 9 5
A K Q 4
A K 7 3
Q 4
Q 8 2
J 9 8 6 3
8
A 10 9 5 Table A J 10 7 6
10 7 2
J 2
K J 7
2 NT 4
3 NT 4
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

97. A Q 9 6
K 3
A J 7 3
A K 10
K J 8 7 5
A 9 8 7 6
K 8
4 Table 10 2
Q J 10 4 2
2
Q J 9 7 5
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

99. A K Q 9 7
Q 8 6
K 3
A K 10
J 10 8
A K 10 3
A 7 2
J 7 5 Table 6 5 2
J 9 7 4 2
J 8
Q 9 4
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

100. A K J 7
J 4 2
A K 7
K Q 5
Q 9 8 5
Q 10 7
8 2
A 9 7 4 Table 10 6 2
A K 9 8 6 3
J 3
J 10
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

104. A 2
A J 10 6
A K J 3
A 10 4
K 10 9 6
9 7 4
2
K Q J 7 5 Table Q J 8 7 5
K Q 8 3 2
8 7
9
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

105. A Q J 10 8
J 10 9
A K 8
A Q
K 9 7 6
K 7 6
3
K J 9 7 4 Table 5 2
A Q 8 4 3 2
J 7 2
10 5
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 12 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

110. Q 9 6 5
A K Q
A K 2
Q 10 9
K J 10 8 2
9 8 6 3 2
3
A 4 Table A 7
J 10 7 4
J 8 7
K J 7 5
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 8 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

119. A 5 2
A K 7 3
K J
A Q 10 9
J 9 6
Q 6 4
A 7 2
K 7 5 4 Table K Q 10 8 7
J 10 9 8 2
8 3
J
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

120. Q 9
A J 8
A J 3 2
A K Q 4
A K 10 7
7 6 4 2
7
10 9 7 5 Table J 8 6 5 2
K Q 10 9 3
K 8
J
2 NT 5
3 NT 5
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

125. A Q 9 5 2
Q 10
A J 7
A K J
K 10 8
8 7 6 2
K
10 9 7 5 4 Table J 7 6
A K J 9 4 3
8 3 2
Q
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 12 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

126. A 6 5 2
A K J
A 8 3
A J 5
Q J 7
Q 8 4 2
K 7
Q 10 7 4 Table K 10 9 8
10 9 7 6 3
J 2
K 9
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

132. K J
A Q 8 2
A K 7 2
K 5 4
A 7 2
J 10 9 7 6
J
Q J 10 9 Table Q 10 9 8 6 5
K 4 3
8 3
A 7
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

133. A 7 2
A K Q 10 8
A 8 2
A 5
J 9 6
J 7 6 3
K J 3
10 7 4 Table K Q 10 8 5
9 4 2
7
K Q J 9
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

134. 10 9 5 2
A K 6
A K 3
A Q J
K Q 8 6
J 10 9 8 7 4
8 2
10 Table A J 7
Q 3 2
J 7
K 9 7 5 4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

135. Q 8 5 2
A K Q 4
A K 3
K 5
K 10 9 7
8 3
J 8 2
A J 10 7 Table A J 6
J 10 9 7 6 2
7
Q 9 4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

141. J 10 8
A K 9 4
A K
A Q 7 5
A Q 9 5 2
8 2
J 7 3
K J 4 Table K 7 6
Q J 10 7 6 3
8 2
10 9
2 NT 5
3 NT 5
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

142. J 8 5
K Q 4
A K J
K Q J 9
A K 9 7
10 9 8
7
A 10 7 5 4 Table Q 10 6 2
A J 7 6 3 2
8 3 2
—
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 6 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

149. A Q 2
K 10 2
A J 8
A Q 9 5
10 5
9 8 7 6 4 3
7 2
K J 4 Table K J 9 8 7 6
A Q J
K 3
10 7
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

154. A Q J 8
J 3 2
A K 7
A J 9
10 6 2
A K 9 7 4
8 3 2
K 4 Table K 9 7 5
Q 10 8 6
J
Q 10 7 5
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

157. A J 10
Q 10 3
A 3
A K Q 9 5
K Q 8 5
A J 8 4 2
K 7
7 4 Table 9 7 6 2
K 9 7 6
J 8 2
J 10
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

164. A Q J 7
A 8 6
K 8 3
A K 10
10 9 6 5 2
K Q 4 2
A 2
Q 4 Table K 8
J 10 9 7 3
J 7
J 9 7 5
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

168. K J 7 6 5
J 4
A K J
A K 10
A Q 8
10 8 3 2
8 3
J 9 5 4 Table 10 9 2
A K Q 9 7 6
7 2
Q 7
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

169. A J 8 2
A 8 7 3
A K 3
A 4
K 9 7 6 5
K 2
8 2
K Q J 5 Table Q 10
Q J 10 9 6 4
J 7
10 9 7
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

170. K 8 7 2
A 10
A K 2
A Q J 9
A Q 5
K 9 7 6
J 8 7 3
K 5 Table J 10 9 6
Q J 8 4 3 2
—
10 7 4
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

177. A K J
A J 10 9 3
K 2
K Q 9
7 5 2
K Q 8 7 4
A
A 10 7 5 Table Q 10 9 8 6
6 2
J 8 7 3
J 4
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

178. K 7 6
A K J 9 2
A 2
A Q 5
A Q J 9 8 2
8 4 3
8 7
K 10 Table 10 5
Q 10 7 6
K J 3
J 9 7 4
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

183. A 9 8 6
8 6
A K J
A K J 4
Q J 10 5
K Q 2
8 7 2
Q 10 7 Table K 7 2
A J 10 9 7 4 3
3
9 5
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

185. A J 9 5
A Q 4
A K 3
Q 10 7
K Q 10 6
K 10 3
8
A K J 9 5 Table 8 7 2
J 9 8 7 6 2
J 7 2
4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

188. K Q 9 6
K 9 4
A K
A Q 10 9
J 10 7 5
A 10 7 3 2
8 3
K J Table A 8 2
Q J 8 6
J 7 2
7 5 4
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

190. A K Q 10 2
A 6 3
A 8 7
A 7
7
K 10 9 8 4 2
K 2
K 10 9 4 Table J 9 8 6 5
Q J 7
J 3
Q J 5
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

192. A J
A J 10 3
A K 8 2
A 9 7
Q 7 6 2
9 8 6 4
3
K Q 10 4 Table K 10 9 8 5
K Q 7 2
J 7
J 5
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

193. A K 5
J 9 2
A K 8 7
A J 5
Q 8 6 2
K 10 8 7
3
K 10 9 7 Table J 10 9 7
A Q 6 4 3
J 2
Q 4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

196. K Q
A Q 3
A K 8
Q 10 9 5 4
9 8 7
K J 10 9 8 7
J 3
A J Table A J 10 6 5 2
6 4 2
7 2
K 7
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

197. A J 10 6
Q J 7
A K 8
K Q 4
K Q 8
A K 8 6
J 7 2
10 9 5 Table 9 7 5 2
10 9 4 3 2
3
A J 7
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

198. A Q 10 7 6
K 6
A K 3
A 10 5
J 2
Q J 9 7 3 2
8 7
K J 4 Table K 9 8 5
A 10 8 4
J 2
Q 9 7
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

201. Q 9 8 7
K 10 3
A K J
A K 10
J 10
A Q 9 8 2
3
Q J 9 7 4 Table A K 6 5 2
J 7 6 4
8 7 2
5
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

203. A 6
A K 2
A K J 7 3
Q 7 4
K Q 10 8 5
9 7 4
8
A K 9 5 Table J 9 7 2
Q J 10 8 6 3
2
J 10
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

205. A K 6
10 7
A K 8 2
A K 7 4
10 7 5 2
Q J 8 6 3 2
7
J 9 Table Q J 9 8
A K 9 4
J 3
Q 10 5
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

206. A Q J
A 8 7 3
7 3 2
A K Q
K 8 6 2
K Q J 9 2
8
9 7 5 Table 10 9 7 5
10 6 4
A K J
J 10 4
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

211. A Q 5
A 8 6 3
A K 2
A 5 4
10 9 8 2
K Q J 10 7
J 3
9 7 Table K J 7 6
9 4 2
8 7
K Q J 10
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

213. K Q
K Q J 9 4
A J 7
K J 9
A 9 2
A 8 6 3
K 3 2
A Q 10 Table J 10 8 7 6 5
10 7 2
8
7 5 4
2 NT 5
3 NT 5
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

215. A Q 8 7 6
A 7 3
A 7
A Q J
J 9 5
K Q J 10 9 2
K J 3
K Table K 10 2
8 6 4
8 2
10 9 7 5 4
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

218. A J 10
A Q 8
A 7 3 2
A J 5
K 6 5
K 9 7 6 2
K J
Q 9 7 Table Q 9 8 7 2
J 10 4 3
8
K 10 4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

222. A 10 7 6
Q 7 6 4
A K 7
A K
K Q 9 5 2
A
8 3 2
10 7 5 4 Table J 8
K J 10 9 8 3 2
J
Q J 9
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

224. A K J
A K Q 10
8 3 2
A 10 9
Q 9 7 6 2
J 8 7 6 4 3
—
K J Table 10 8 5
9 2
A K J 7
Q 7 5 4
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

226. A K 9
A J 10 8
A 7 2
A J 4
J 6 2
K Q 3 2
K 8 3
K 10 9 Table Q 10 8 7 5
9 7 6 4
J
Q 7 5
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

228. A K Q J
7 4 2
A 7 2
A Q J
10 8 7 6 2
A J 10 9 3
—
K 7 5 Table 9 5
K Q 8 6
K J 8 3
10 9 4
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

229. A Q 10
K J 9 7 6
K 2
A K 9
K J 8 7 2
A Q 10
A 8 3
J 10 Table 9 6 5
8 4 3 2
J 7
Q 7 5 4
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

231. 8 6 5
A Q 7
A K 8 7 3
A K
A Q 10 9 7
6 4 3 2
J
7 5 4 Table K J 2
K J 10 9 8
2
Q J 10 9
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

236. K J 10
A K Q
A J 7 3
K 7 5
Q 8 7 2
10 8 4 3
K 2
J 9 4 Table A 9 6 5
J 9 7 6 2
8
A Q 10
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

241. A K 9
A 9 8
A K J 7
J 7 4
10 7 6 2
K J 4 3 2
3
K 10 5 Table Q J 8 5
Q 10 7 6
8 2
A Q 9
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

243. A J 10
A K 8 3
A J 8 3
A 4
K 7 5
7 6 2
K 7
Q J 9 7 5 Table Q 9 8 6 2
Q J 10 9 4
2
K 10
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 12 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

247. A 2
A K 10 3
A K 3
Q J 7 4
Q 10 9 7 6
Q J 8
J 8 7
9 5 Table K J 8 5
9 7 6 4 2
2
A K 10
2 NT 9
3 NT 9
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

252. A Q 10 6
A 7 2
K J
K Q J 5
K J 7 2
J 10 6 3
A 8 2
A 10 Table 9 8 5
K Q 9 8 4
7 3
9 7 4
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

Simulation 8Z23 Main Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

9991. K Q 9 5
A K Q J
A 7
Q 7 4
A J 8 2
9 6 4 2
J 8 2
J 9 Table 10 7 6
10 8 7 3
K 3
A K 10 5
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 8 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

9992. A J
J 10 9
A J 7
A K Q J 4
K Q 10 9 8 7
7 6 3 2
8
7 5 Table 6 5 2
A K Q 8 4
K 3 2
10 9
2 NT 7
3 NT 7
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

9993. J 8
K J 7 2
A K J 3
A K 4
A 9 7 5 2
9 6 4 3
7 2
10 9 Table K Q 10 6
A Q 10 8
8
Q J 7 5
2 NT 5
3 NT 5
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

9994. K Q 2
K J 4 3
A K 3
A J 9
J 8
A 10 8 7 6
J 7
Q 7 5 4 Table A 10 9 7 6 5
Q 9 2
8 2
K 10
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

9995. J 10 8 5 2
A Q 8
A K J
A Q
K
K J 10 3
8 7 3
K J 10 9 7 Table A Q 9 7 6
9 7 6 4 2
2
5 4
2 NT 10
3 NT 10
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

9996. A Q 6 5
A J 8 7
A 2
K Q 4
10 9
K 9 6
K 8 3
J 10 9 7 5 Table K J 8 7 2
Q 10 4 3 2
J 7
A
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 9 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

9997. A Q 7 5
A K
K J 7
K J 7 5
J 9
J 10 8 7 6 4
A 2
A Q 4 Table K 10 8 6 2
Q 9 3 2
8 3
10 9
2 NT 8
3 NT 8
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

9998. A K 8 7
A J 4
A 2
A J 9 4
J 9 2
10 9 8 3
K 7 3
K 10 5 Table Q 10 6 5
K Q 7 6 2
J 8
Q 7
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 11 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

9999. A K J 6
A K Q 6
J 3
K 9 4
Q 10 9 5
10 9 4 3
A 8
Q 10 5 Table 8 7 2
J 8 7 2
K 7 2
A J 7
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 8 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

10000. Q 2
A K 10 7 3
A 7 3
A K 9
A K 9 8 6 5
8 6 4 2
8
Q 7 Table J 10 7
Q J 9
K J 2
J 10 5 4
2 NT 6
3 NT 6
5 10 4 3
5
Q 10 9 6 5 4
8 6 3 2

Simulation 8Z23 Main

Top Notrump or Five Diamonds?

1.	A K 7 2 K 8 3 A 7 A Q 9 4
J 10 8 J 10 7 6 4 2 8 2 J 10		Q 9 6 5 A Q 9 K J 3 K 7 5
2 NT 7 3 NT 7 5 10	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

2.	Q J A K 10 8 A J 2 A Q 10 4
A K 9 5 2 6 4 K 8 3 K 9 5		10 8 7 6 Q J 9 7 3 2 7 J 7
2 NT 7 3 NT 7 5 10	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

3.	Q 9 8 6 Q J A K J A K 10 5
J 10 2 K 10 7 6 3 7 Q J 7 4		A K 7 5 A 9 8 4 2 8 3 2 9
2 NT 5 3 NT 5 5 9	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

4.	A K 10 7 Q 4 3 A K J K 9 7
9 6 5 K J 10 8 7 7 Q J 10 4		Q J 8 2 A 9 6 2 8 3 2 A 5
2 NT 6 3 NT 6 5 9	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

5.	A Q J 2 A 10 6 A K K 7 5 4
10 9 8 6 K J 8 J 7 2 A J 9		K 7 5 Q 9 7 4 3 2 8 3 Q 10
2 NT 5 3 NT 5 5 10	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

6.	A Q 9 A Q 8 6 A K J 3 10 5
K 10 2 10 4 3 2 8 7 2 K Q J		J 8 7 6 5 K J 9 7 — A 9 7 4
2 NT 9 3 NT 9 5 11	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

7.	A Q 10 A J 9 6 A 7 A Q 9 7
9 5 2 10 7 4 3 K 8 2 K J 10		K J 8 7 6 K Q 8 2 J 3 5 4
2 NT 7 3 NT 7 5 10	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

8.	A J Q 9 3 A K J 7 3 K Q 9
Q 8 7 6 5 A K 10 7 2 J 5 4		K 10 9 2 J 8 6 4 2 8 A 10 7
2 NT 7 3 NT 7 5 9	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

9.	A K J A J 9 7 A 8 2 A 5 4
10 9 7 6 5 K 10 6 4 3 J K 7		Q 8 2 Q 8 2 K 7 3 Q J 10 9
2 NT 8 3 NT 8 5 10	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

10.	A Q A Q 9 8 4 A K 7 Q 5 4
J 10 9 8 2 K 6 3 J 8 3 A K		K 7 6 5 J 10 7 2 2 J 10 9 7
2 NT 9 3 NT 9 5 11	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

13.	A K J 8 8 4 2 A K J 2 A 5
5 2 K Q 10 9 7 7 Q J 10 7 4		Q 10 9 7 6 A J 6 3 8 3 K 9
2 NT 8 3 NT 8 5 11	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

19.	Q J 9 A K 9 A 8 3 A K 7 5
10 6 5 2 Q 8 6 4 2 K 7 2 Q		A K 8 7 J 10 7 3 J J 10 9 4
2 NT 8 3 NT 8 5 11	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

21.	10 7 A K 6 A J 7 3 A K Q 7
K Q J 2 J 10 9 4 2 K 2 9 5		A 9 8 6 5 Q 8 7 3 8 J 10 4
2 NT 8 3 NT 8 5 11	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

26.	A Q 9 7 A 9 3 A 8 3 A K 5
K J 6 5 K 7 6 2 J 2 J 10 7		10 8 2 Q J 10 8 4 K 7 Q 9 4
2 NT 8 3 NT 8 5 11	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

29.	K Q J 5 A 10 7 K J A Q 10 5
A 9 2 K 6 4 3 2 8 2 K J 4		10 8 7 6 Q J 9 8 A 7 3 9 7
2 NT 6 3 NT 6 5 11	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

31.	K 9 8 A Q 7 2 A K 2 A 10 5
Q J 7 6 10 4 J 3 Q J 9 7 4		A 10 5 2 K J 9 8 6 3 8 7 K
2 NT 9 3 NT 9 5 9	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

32.	Q J 10 6 5 A K 10 K 3 A K 5
K 9 8 Q J 6 4 3 2 2 J 10 4		A 7 2 9 8 7 A J 8 7 Q 9 7
2 NT 8 3 NT 8 5 9	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

35.	A Q 10 2 K 10 A K 3 A 10 9 4
K 9 8 7 6 9 8 6 4 3 7 2 5		J 5 A Q J 7 2 J 8 K Q J 7
2 NT 10 3 NT 10 5 9	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

38.	A 7 2 K 7 2 A K 8 3 A K 10
Q 10 9 5 J 10 8 6 3 7 J 9 7		K J 8 6 A Q 9 4 J 2 Q 5 4
2 NT 9 3 NT 9 5 10	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

39.	A J 10 A K 9 3 A 3 A J 10 9
9 7 6 5 2 Q 10 2 8 7 Q 7 5		K Q 8 J 8 7 6 4 K J 2 K 4
2 NT 7 3 NT 7 5 11	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

46.	K J 5 A K J 6 4 A K 2 Q 9
10 8 2 10 3 2 J 8 3 A J 7 5		A Q 9 7 6 Q 9 8 7 7 K 10 4
2 NT 4 3 NT 4 5 9	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

50.	K Q 2 Q J 9 A K 7 3 A J 5
A 10 9 8 7 K 4 3 2 8 K 9 4		J 6 5 A 10 8 7 6 J 2 Q 10 7
2 NT 8 3 NT 8 5 9	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

51.	J 10 5 A K J 9 A 7 2 A K 9
Q 8 7 Q 8 4 2 K 8 3 Q 7 5		A K 9 6 2 10 7 6 3 J J 10 4
2 NT 7 3 NT 7 5 11	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

55.	A 10 8 7 A 9 3 A K J A 10 5
K J 6 K 7 6 4 2 7 2 K 7 4		Q 9 5 2 Q J 10 8 8 3 Q J 9
2 NT 9 3 NT 9 5 10	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

56.	A 9 5 A 9 3 A K J 7 A 7 5
K J 10 8 J 10 7 6 2 2 K J 10		Q 7 6 2 K Q 8 4 8 3 Q 9 4
2 NT 9 3 NT 9 5 10	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

57.	Q 7 5 A Q 10 A J A K J 9 5
10 8 9 8 7 6 4 2 K 7 3 Q 4		A K J 9 6 2 K J 3 8 2 10 7
2 NT 9 3 NT 9 5 10	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

58.	A K Q 2 K 7 2 A J K J 10 5
J 9 7 6 5 A Q 8 K 8 A Q 9		10 8 J 10 9 6 4 3 7 3 2 7 4
2 NT 7 3 NT 7 5 11	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

59.	K 6 2 A K Q 7 A J 2 K 5 4
Q 10 8 5 8 6 4 3 2 K J 9 7		A J 9 7 J 10 9 8 7 3 A Q 10
2 NT 10 3 NT 10 5 8	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

64.	K 7 2 A K 3 K J 2 A Q 9 7
A 9 5 Q 10 9 8 7 2 A 7 K J		Q J 10 8 6 J 6 4 8 3 10 5 4
2 NT 9 3 NT 9 5 10	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2

65.	A K 5 A K Q 10 A J 7 10 5 4
J 9 8 6 J 8 7 6 3 A K Q 7		Q 10 7 2 9 4 3 2 K 8 2 J 9
2 NT 8 3 NT 8 5 9	4 3 5 Q 10 9 6 5 4 8 6 3 2