Simulation 8Z08 Main

Trump Lead Part III

by Richard Pavlicek

[First read Part I and II]

Now suppose your trumps are 10-2 instead of 3-2, where a trump lead might lose a trump trick. Would this change the picture?

Which card would you lead?

You 4 South West

Pass
Pass North

1 NT¹
4 East

Pass
All Pass SOUTH
1
2
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table
1. forcing (6-12)

Leads compared: 2, 2, 2. The comparison should be closer. Which lead will you bet on?

For a simulation I created 10,000 random deals with the West hand fixed and the other hands constrained to fit the auction. South: 5+ spades; 4+ hearts; 13-14 total points (minimal for better chances to set); freakness at most 7. North: 4+ hearts; not 4+ spades; 11+ support points (a stretch perhaps but leaving higher hopes to set). East: inappropriate hand for an overcall or takeout double.

Results are shown below. Trick Average shows the average number of tricks won by the defense. Set Percent shows how often the contract is defeated, and Hold Percent how often it is made without an overtrick. The second table compares each lead with every other lead, with the better choice leftmost. Net W-L (matchpoints or board-a-match verdict) counts +1 for a win and -1 for a loss. Net Score and Net IMPs are calculated twice, first with declarer nonvul (green) then with declarer vul (red). Plus values show the net gain over 10,000 deals.

No change but tightened up considerably, especially in Won-Lost (matchpoints or board-a-match) where the result may be too close to call statistically. For the final chapter, let’s increase the trump holding another notch… on to Part IV.

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead Trick Average Set Percent Hold Percent
2 3.3200 43.18 39.52
2 3.2855 42.22 39.90
2 3.3177 43.15 40.18

Results for 10,000 Deals
Lead	Trick Average	Set Percent	Hold Percent
2	3.3200	43.18	39.52
2	3.2855	42.22	39.90
2	3.3177	43.15	40.18

Comparison Net W-L Net Score Net IMPs Net Score Net IMPs
2 vs. 2 +325 +55710 +1349 +87510 +1690
2 vs. 2 +21 +3790 +124 +8990 +213
2 vs. 2 +304 +51920 +1227 +78520 +1479

Comparison	Net W-L	Net Score	Net IMPs	Net Score	Net IMPs
2 vs. 2	+325	+55710	+1349	+87510	+1690
2 vs. 2	+21	+3790	+124	+8990	+213
2 vs. 2	+304	+51920	+1227	+78520	+1479

Actual Deals

Below are 100 of the 10,000 deals, including the first 20, last 20, and 60 in-between with the greatest IMP gains (20 for each lead). Numbers after each lead show the tricks won by the defense with double-dummy play by both sides.

1. 8 7 5
Q 8 7 4
A Q 8 7
A 10
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 3
J 9 6
K 10 9 5 4
K Q 8 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 10 6 4
A K 5 3
6
9 7 5

2. 8 7
A 9 8 7
Q 10 8 4
A 10 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
6 5 4
A K 6 5
Q 9 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 10 5 4 3
K Q J 3
9 7
K 8

3. 10 7
A 7 4 3
K Q 7 5
Q 10 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
8 6 5
A 10 8 6 4
A 7 6
2 → 5
2 → 5
2 → 5 K 8 5 4 3
K Q J 9
9
K 9 8

4. 8 6
A K Q 5
Q 9 8 7
8 7 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7
J 8 4
A K 10 6
Q 10 9 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 5 4 3
9 7 6 3
5 4
A K

5. 6 4
K J 9 8
10 4
A Q 10 9 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 5
A 7 5
A 9 8 7 5
K 8 6
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 3 K Q 10 7 3
Q 6 4 3
K Q 6
7

6. 10 5 4
Q J 8 3
K Q 4
A 10 9
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7
7 6 4
A 8 7 6 5
K Q 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 4 K Q 8 6 3
A K 9 5
10 9
8 5

7. Q 8
A 8 7 4
K Q 6 5 4
10 9
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5 3
9 6 3
A 10 8
A Q 7 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 7 6 4
K Q J 5
9 7
K 8

8. 8
K 7 5 4 3
8 7 5 4
A K 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 4
J 9
K 10 9
Q 10 9 8 5
2 → 1
2 → 1
2 → 1 10 7 6 5 3
A Q 8 6
A Q 6
7

9. 6
A 6 5 3
K 10 9 4
K 8 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 5 3
J 9 7
A Q 8 5
A 9 7
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 8 7 4
K Q 8 4
7 6
Q 10

10. —
K J 9 3
Q 9 6 5 4
10 9 7 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 7 3
Q 4
K 8 7
A K Q 8
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 Q 10 6 5 4
A 8 7 6 5
A 10
5

Simulation 8Z08 Main Top Trump Lead Part III

11. 8
J 9 6 3
A 10 9 4
K Q 9 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5 4
A Q 5
K Q 8 6
8 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 6 3
K 8 7 4
7 5
A 10

12. 5
K J 9 5 4
9 8 6 4
K Q 10
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 8
Q 6
K Q 10 7
A 8 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 7 6 4 3
A 8 7 3
A 5
9 6

13. Q
K Q 8 7
K 10 7 4
10 9 8 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6 3
A J 5
Q 8 6 5
K Q 7
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 5 K 8 7 5 4
9 6 4 3
A 9
A 6

14. Q
J 6 5 4
A K 10 8 6 5
10 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6 3
9 8 7
9 7 4
A K Q 5
2 → 1
2 → 1
2 → 3 K 10 7 5 4
A K Q 3
Q
9 8 6

15. K 8
A 9 7 5
10 8 5 4
A 8 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
6 4 3
K 9 6
K Q 9 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 10 6 5 4 3
K Q J 8
A Q 7
10

16. K Q
Q 9 7 6 3
A 7 6
10 9 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7
J 8
K 10 8 5 4
A Q 8 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 10 6 5 4 3
A K 5 4
Q 9
K 6

17. 4
8 6 4 3
A 10 7 6 4
A 9 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 5
J 7 5
K 9 5
K Q 10 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 Q 10 7 6 3
A K Q 9
Q 8
8 7

18. 8 7
Q 9 8 7 6
A 8 7
A 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 3
K J
K 10 9 5 4
K 9 8 7
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 6 5 4
A 5 4 3
Q 6
Q 10

19. —
J 8 5 4
A 10 8 5 4
K 9 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6 5 3
K 9 7
K 9 7 6
A Q
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 8 7 4
A Q 6 3
Q
10 8 7

20. —
K 6 5 3
A 10 8 6 4
Q 10 9 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 7 6
7 4
K Q 5
A K 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 5 4 3
A Q J 9 8
9 7
8

Simulation 8Z08 Main Top Trump Lead Part III

233. 10
A K 9 5
K 10 9 6 5
9 8 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 5 3
Q 6 4
8 7 4
A K Q 7
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K Q 8 7 4
J 8 7 3
A Q
10 6

321. 10
Q 7 5 3
10 5 4
A Q 9 7 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 6 4
9 6
A K Q 7
K 10 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 Q 8 7 5 3
A K J 8 4
9 8 6
—

381. Q
K Q 8 6 5
10 7 6 5
K Q 10
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 5 4
A J
K Q 9
9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 10 7 6 3
9 7 4 3
A 8 4
A

488. 8 5
Q 9 6 4
A K 10 9
Q 10 9
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
K 7
8 7 6 5 4
A 8 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 10 7 4 3
A J 8 5 3
Q
K 6

825. —
A 7 5 4
K 9 8 7 4
Q 7 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 6 3
K 6 3
Q 10 5
A 10 9
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 Q 10 7 5 4
Q J 9 8
A 6
K 8

947. 5
A 9 6 4
A 7 5
Q 10 9 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 6 4
8 7 3
Q 8 6 4
A K 8
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 Q 10 8 7 3
K Q J 5
K 10 9
7

978. 5 4
K Q 9 8 4
Q 9 7 4
K 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 6
J 5
K 8 6 5
A Q 9 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 10 8 7 3
A 7 6 3
A 10
10 8

983. K 7
K 9 7 3
9 8 4
K Q 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 3
Q 8 4
K Q 7 5
A 9 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 Q 10 6 5 4
A J 6 5
A 10 6
10

1055. 7 4 3
A J 8 5
10 9 8
A K 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8
9 3
A K 7 5 4
10 9 8 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 10 6 5
K Q 7 6 4
Q 6
Q

1072. 7 6
7 6 5 4
A K Q 10 6
Q 10
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10
Q 3
9 7 4
A 9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 Q 8 5 4 3
A K J 9 8
8 5
K

Simulation 8Z08 Main Top Trump Lead Part III

1174. 7
K Q 9 5 3
8 7 6
K Q 10 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5 4 3
A J
A Q 9 5
9 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 10 8 6
8 7 6 4
K 10 4
A

1237. 6
J 7 6 3
10 8 7
A K Q 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 5 4
Q 9 5
A K Q 9
10 9 7
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 10 7 3
A K 8 4
6 5 4
8

1453. Q 10 4
A K J 8
Q 10 6 4
9 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5
7 6 5
K 9 8 7
A Q 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 8 7 6 3
Q 9 4 3
A 5
K 10

1455. 5
A J 8 7
A 9 8 7 5
10 7 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 8
K 6 4
K Q 10 6
Q 8 5
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 7 6 4 3
Q 9 5 3
4
A K 9

1619. —
9 7 6 3
Q 10 9 7 6
A 10 9 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 6 5
J 5 4
A K 8 4
Q 5
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 10 8 7 4 3
A K Q 8
5
K 8 6

1632. —
J 8 7 4
K 10 8 5 4
K 10 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 7 6
A 9 5
A Q 7 6
Q 8
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 K 8 5 4 3
K Q 6 3
9
A 9 7

1688. 5
K J 9 4
A 7 6 5 4
Q 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 4
7 6 3
K Q 8
A 9 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 Q 10 7 6 3
A Q 8 5
10 9
K 10

1766. 6 3
Q 7 6 5
A Q 10 4
K 10 9
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
K 3
9 8 7 5
A Q 8 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 10 8 5 4
A J 9 8 4
K 6
6

1776. K 5
J 6 5 3
10 9 5
A K 10 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7
A 7
K Q 6 4
Q 9 8 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 Q 8 6 4 3
K Q 9 8 4
A 8 7
—

2091. 8 6 3
K 9 8 7
Q 10
A Q 10 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
J 4
A K 9 7 6 4
9 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K 10 7 5 4
A Q 6 5 3
8 5
K

Simulation 8Z08 Main Top Trump Lead Part III

2253. Q
9 8 5 4
9 6 5
A K Q 8 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 8 7
A Q 3
K Q 8 7
9 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 6 5 4 3
K J 7 6
A 10 4
10

2431. 6 5
K Q 9 4
K 10 9 7
K 10 9
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 7
J 8 7
8 6 5 4
A Q 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 Q 10 8 4 3
A 6 5 3
A Q
8 5

2447. 8 7
A 8 7 4
A K 10 9 4
6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10
Q 9 5
8 7 6 5
A 10 9 7
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 Q 6 5 4 3
K J 6 3
Q
K Q 8

2576. Q
K J 9 3
K 7 6 5
Q 10 9 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 4
A 7 6
A 9 8
K 8 7 6
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 K 8 6 5 3
Q 8 5 4
Q 10 4
A

2651. 6 3
A 8 7 5
Q 8 6
K Q 10 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 4
Q J 3
K 10 9 5
A 8 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 8 7 5
K 9 6 4
A 7 4
9

2717. 8
K J 9 8
A 10 9 8 6 5 4
10
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 10 6
A 7 3
K 7
Q 9 8 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 1
2 → 1 Q 7 5 4 3
Q 6 5 4
Q
A K 7

3005. Q 10
J 9 6 3
Q 10 9 7 4
A Q
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6 5
A 7 4
K 6 5
K 10 9 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 8 7 4 3
K Q 8 5
A 8
8 6

3151. Q 10 7
A K 5 3
Q 10 4
10 7 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8
J 8 4
9 8 7 6 5
A K Q 8
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 6 5 4 3
Q 9 7 6
A K
9 5

3163. 8 4
K J 5 4
K Q 10 8 6
Q 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
A 9 8
A 7 5 4
10 9 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 K 10 6 5 3
Q 7 6 3
9
A K 8

3894. 8 5
K J 5 4
Q 8
K Q 10 8 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 4
9 8 3
A K 10 7
A 9 7 5
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 K Q 10 6 3
A Q 7 6
9 6 5 4
—

Simulation 8Z08 Main Top Trump Lead Part III

4180. Q
K 9 5 3
Q 10 9 7 4
A 8 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6 4
Q J 4
K 8 6
K Q 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 10 7 5 3
A 8 7 6
A 5
10 9

4275. Q 5
9 8 7 6 3
A K 10 5
10 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 4
Q 4
8 7 6 4
A Q 9 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 10 8 7 6 3
A K J 5
Q 9
K 8

4318. —
J 9 8 7
K Q 10 9 6 4
7 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 7 5
A Q 6
8 5
A K 10 9
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 5 K 8 6 4 3
K 5 4 3
A 7
Q 8

4724. 10 8 7
K 9 6 3
A 9 5
K Q 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 4
A 8 4
K Q 10 4
10 9 8 7 6
2 → 4
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 6 5 3
Q J 7 5
8 7 6
A

5241. Q 8 7
J 9 8 7
A Q 8 7
K 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K
6 5
10 9 6 5 4
A Q 8 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 10 6 5 4 3
A K Q 4 3
K
10 9

5355. 4
A 9 4 3
A Q 8 6
8 7 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 8
K 6 5
9 7 5 4
A Q 10
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 7 6 5 3
Q J 8 7
K 10
K 9

5443. 10 7
J 9 6 4
K Q 10 8 4
K Q
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8
K 5 3
A 7 6 5
10 9 7 6
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 Q 6 5 4 3
A Q 8 7
9
A 8 5

5458. 6
J 8 7 5
9 8 7
A K Q 8 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 4 3
K 9 6
A K Q 10
9 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 8 7 5
A Q 4 3
6 5 4
10

5598. 10
8 6 4 3
A 8 5
A Q 8 7 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 6 5
K Q 5
K Q 10 7
10 9 6
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 2 K Q 7 4 3
A J 9 7
9 6 4
K

5641. 5 4
J 8 6 3
K 6 4
A K 10 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10
Q 7
A Q 10 8 7 5
9 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 8 7 6 3
A K 9 5 4
9
Q 8

Simulation 8Z08 Main Top Trump Lead Part III

5900. Q 10
J 9 8 4 3
K 10 8 5
K Q
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 5
K 7
9 7 6 4
A 10 9 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 3
2 → 4 8 7 6 4 3
A Q 6 5
A Q
8 7

6246. 3
A 8 7 5
A 8 5 4
Q 10 9 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 6 4
Q 9 4
K 9 7 6
K 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 2 Q 10 8 7 5
K J 6 3
Q 10
A 6

6463. 6 5
9 8 6 5
K 10 7
A K 10 8
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 4
Q 7
A Q 9 6 5
Q 9 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 4 K 10 8 7 3
A K J 4 3
8 4
6

6519. —
K 6 5 4
K 9 7 6 5
8 7 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 4 3
A Q 7
Q 4
K Q 10 9
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 8 7 6 5
J 9 8 3
A 10 8
A

6532. Q
K J 7 4
Q 8 5 4
K 10 7 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 3
8 5 3
K 9 7 6
A 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 10 7 6 5 4
A Q 9 6
A 10
Q 9

6728. 4
K Q 9 7 6
K Q 10 6
10 9 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7 3
8 5
A 8 7 5 4
K Q 7
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 10 8 6 5
A J 4 3
9
A 8 5

6765. —
Q 8 5 3
Q 8 7 6
K 9 8 7 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 8 7 6
A K 4
9 5
A Q 10 6
2 → 6
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 10 5 4 3
J 9 7 6
A K 10 4
—

6879. K 10 7
K 7 6 5
K Q 8 5
Q 10
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 5
J 9 4
10 7 6 4
A K 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 2
2 → 4 Q 8 6 4 3
A Q 8 3
A 9
8 5

6916. 6
A 9 7 3
Q 8 7 5
K 10 8 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 10
K J 5
K 10 9 4
9 7 5
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 8 7 5 4 3
Q 8 6 4
A 6
A Q

7162. 8
A J 9 3
7 6 5 4
A 10 7 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 5 3
K 8 7
K Q 10 9
9 8 5
2 → 5
2 → 4
2 → 3 Q 10 7 6 4
Q 6 5 4
A 8
K Q

Simulation 8Z08 Main Top Trump Lead Part III

7245. Q
9 8 6 4
A Q 6 5 4
Q 9 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7 4
A Q 7
K 8 7
K 10 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 10 6 5 3
K J 5 3
10 9
A 6

7414. 3
K J 8 6
A Q 7 5 4
10 8 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7
Q 7 5
K 9 8 6
A 9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 5 K 10 8 6 5 4
A 9 4 3
10
K Q

7460. 7
A 9 8 4
K 10 9 8 5
K 7 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 4 3
K 7 6
Q 7 6 4
A 9 6
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 3 Q 10 8 6 5
Q J 5 3
A
Q 10 8

7494. 7 5
Q J 9 8 5
A Q 8 4
Q 8
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10
K
10 9 7 6 5
A 10 7 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 4 K 8 6 4 3
A 7 6 4 3
K
K 9

7647. 8
9 7 6 4
Q 10 9 8 7 6
A 10
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 5
A K
A K 5 4
9 7 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 2
2 → 3 K 7 6 4 3
Q J 8 5 3
—
K Q 8

7694. 5
K J 7 6
Q 7 6 4
Q 8 7 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 8 6
5 4 3
A 9 8
A 10 9 6
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 Q 10 7 4 3
A Q 9 8
K 10 5
K

8106. 5
Q J 9 5 4
10 7 4
A Q 10 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 7 3
A 6
K Q 6 5
9 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 4
2 → 2 K 10 8 6 4
K 8 7 3
A 9 8
K

8394. K
Q 9 8 4
10 6 5
A K 9 8 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 5 4
7 5
A K Q 7
Q 10 7 5
2 → 2
2 → 4
2 → 2 Q 10 8 6 3
A K J 6 3
9 8 4
—

8402. 4
8 6 4 3
A 10 6
K Q 10 9 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 6 3
Q J 9
K Q 8 7
A 7 5
2 → 3
2 → 5
2 → 3 K Q 10 8 5
A K 7 5
9 5 4
8

8715. —
J 9 7 3
Q 6 5 4
A Q 9 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 6 5 3
A 6 5
K 9 8 7
K 10
2 → 5
2 → 3
2 → 4 Q 10 8 7 4
K Q 8 4
A 10
8 7

Simulation 8Z08 Main Top Trump Lead Part III

9981. 7 6
A K 5 4
10 7 5 4
A 9 8
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 3
J 8 3
A K 9 6
Q 10 7 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 8 5 4
Q 9 7 6
Q 8
K 6

9982. K
Q J 8 7
K 9 8 5
K 10 7 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7 6
K 6 3
Q 7 6 4
A 9 6
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 Q 8 5 4 3
A 9 5 4
A 10
Q 8

9983. 10 7 6
7 6 5 4 3
A K 8
A 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
A 8
Q 10 9 7 6 5
Q 10 8 7
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 8 5 4 3
K Q J 9
4
K 9 6

9984. Q 8
J 9 8 6 5
A 10 8 6
A 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 4
A 4
9 7 5 4
K Q 10 8 7
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 3 K 10 6 5 3
K Q 7 3
K Q
9 6

9985. —
8 7 5 4 3
A K Q 6 4
9 8 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7 5 3
K Q
10 9 5
A K 10 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 3 K Q 10 6 4
A J 9 6
8 7
Q 7

9986. K 5 3
K J 9 8
A 9 5
Q 8 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 6
6 4 3
K Q 10 6 4
A 10 9 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 Q 10 8 7 4
A Q 7 5
8 7
K 7

9987. 6 4 3
J 8 7 4
A 6
A K 8 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7
A Q 3
Q 10 8 7 5 4
9 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 10 8 5
K 9 6 5
K 9
Q 10

9988. 10 8
K J 8 6 4
10 8 6 4
A K
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 4
9 3
A K 9
Q 10 8 7 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 7 6 5 3
A Q 7 5
Q 7 5
9

9989. 8
K J 9 4
K 8 6 5 4
K 10 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 6 4
Q 5
A 10 9
A 9 8 6 5
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K Q 7 5 3
A 8 7 6 3
Q 7
Q

9990. 4
K Q J 6 4
10 6 5 4
A 8 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K 7 5
9 3
K Q 8 7
K 10 7 6
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 Q 10 8 6 3
A 8 7 5
A 9
Q 9

Simulation 8Z08 Main Top Trump Lead Part III

9991. 10
K 9 8 7
A 9 8 5
Q 10 8 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8 7 4
A 6 4
K Q 10 6
K 9 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 6 5 3
Q J 5 3
7 4
A 7

9992. 10 8 5
A J 9 4
10 9 7
A K 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q
K 6 5
K 8 6 5
Q 9 8 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K 7 6 4 3
Q 8 7 3
A Q 4
10

9993. Q 8
7 6 5 3
A K 9 8
K 9 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 10 7
Q J 4
7 6 4
A Q 10 8 7
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 6 5 4 3
A K 9 8
Q 10 5
5

9994. 6
Q J 8 5
K 10 8 7 4
K 10 7
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K Q 5
K 7 4
A 9 6
9 8 6 5
2 → 2
2 → 2
2 → 2 10 8 7 4 3
A 9 6 3
Q 5
A Q

9995. 10 7 5
Q J 9 3
9 8
A K Q 9
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8
A 8 6
K Q 10 7 4
10 8 6 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 K Q 6 4 3
K 7 5 4
A 6 5
7

9996. 10 5
A K 4 3
9 7 5
A 7 6 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 7 4
J 9 7
K Q 10 6 4
K 10 8
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 3 K Q 8 6 3
Q 8 6 5
A 8
Q 9

9997. K 8
7 6 5 4
K Q 10 7 6
Q 9
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 3
Q 8 3
A 9 5 4
K 10 8 7
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 4 10 7 6 5 4
A K J 9
8
A 6 5

9998. —
J 9 8 7
K 8 6 5 4
K 8 7 5
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table Q 10 8 3
K Q
Q 10 9 7
A Q 10
2 → 3
2 → 3
2 → 3 K 7 6 5 4
A 6 5 4 3
A
9 6

9999. 7 6
J 8 7 5
A K 7 6
K 10 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table K
Q 6 3
Q 10 9 8 4
A 8 7 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 Q 10 8 5 4 3
A K 9 4
5
Q 9

10000. K 7 3
K J 8 5
K 10 4
K 7 6
A J 9 2
10 2
J 3 2
J 4 3 2 Table 8
9 4 3
A Q 8 6
Q 10 9 8 5
2 → 4
2 → 4
2 → 4 Q 10 6 5 4
A Q 7 6
9 7 5
A

Simulation 8Z08 Main Top Trump Lead Part III

You	4 South		West Pass Pass	North 1 NT¹ 4	East Pass All Pass	SOUTH 1 2
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2							1. forcing (6-12)

1.	8 7 5 Q 8 7 4 A Q 8 7 A 10
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		3 J 9 6 K 10 9 5 4 K Q 8 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 10 6 4 A K 5 3 6 9 7 5

2.	8 7 A 9 8 7 Q 10 8 4 A 10 7
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 6 5 4 A K 6 5 Q 9 6 5
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K 10 5 4 3 K Q J 3 9 7 K 8

3.	10 7 A 7 4 3 K Q 7 5 Q 10 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 8 6 5 A 10 8 6 4 A 7 6
2 → 5 2 → 5 2 → 5	K 8 5 4 3 K Q J 9 9 K 9 8

4.	8 6 A K Q 5 Q 9 8 7 8 7 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 7 J 8 4 A K 10 6 Q 10 9 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 5 4 3 9 7 6 3 5 4 A K

5.	6 4 K J 9 8 10 4 A Q 10 9 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 5 A 7 5 A 9 8 7 5 K 8 6
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 3	K Q 10 7 3 Q 6 4 3 K Q 6 7

6.	10 5 4 Q J 8 3 K Q 4 A 10 9
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		7 7 6 4 A 8 7 6 5 K Q 7 6
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 4	K Q 8 6 3 A K 9 5 10 9 8 5

7.	Q 8 A 8 7 4 K Q 6 5 4 10 9
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		5 3 9 6 3 A 10 8 A Q 7 6 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 10 7 6 4 K Q J 5 9 7 K 8

8.	8 K 7 5 4 3 8 7 5 4 A K 6
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K Q 4 J 9 K 10 9 Q 10 9 8 5
2 → 1 2 → 1 2 → 1	10 7 6 5 3 A Q 8 6 A Q 6 7

9.	6 A 6 5 3 K 10 9 4 K 8 6 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 5 3 J 9 7 A Q 8 5 A 9 7
2 → 4 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 8 7 4 K Q 8 4 7 6 Q 10

10.	— K J 9 3 Q 9 6 5 4 10 9 7 6
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 8 7 3 Q 4 K 8 7 A K Q 8
2 → 2 2 → 2 2 → 2	Q 10 6 5 4 A 8 7 6 5 A 10 5

11.	8 J 9 6 3 A 10 9 4 K Q 9 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		7 5 4 A Q 5 K Q 8 6 8 7 6
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K Q 10 6 3 K 8 7 4 7 5 A 10

12.	5 K J 9 5 4 9 8 6 4 K Q 10
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 10 8 Q 6 K Q 10 7 A 8 7 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 7 6 4 3 A 8 7 3 A 5 9 6

13.	Q K Q 8 7 K 10 7 4 10 9 8 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 6 3 A J 5 Q 8 6 5 K Q 7
2 → 5 2 → 4 2 → 5	K 8 7 5 4 9 6 4 3 A 9 A 6

14.	Q J 6 5 4 A K 10 8 6 5 10 7
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 6 3 9 8 7 9 7 4 A K Q 5
2 → 1 2 → 1 2 → 3	K 10 7 5 4 A K Q 3 Q 9 8 6

15.	K 8 A 9 7 5 10 8 5 4 A 8 6
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 7 6 4 3 K 9 6 K Q 9 7 5
2 → 2 2 → 2 2 → 2	10 6 5 4 3 K Q J 8 A Q 7 10

16.	K Q Q 9 7 6 3 A 7 6 10 9 7
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 7 J 8 K 10 8 5 4 A Q 8 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	10 6 5 4 3 A K 5 4 Q 9 K 6

17.	4 8 6 4 3 A 10 7 6 4 A 9 6
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 8 5 J 7 5 K 9 5 K Q 10 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	Q 10 7 6 3 A K Q 9 Q 8 8 7

18.	8 7 Q 9 8 7 6 A 8 7 A 6 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 3 K J K 10 9 5 4 K 9 8 7
2 → 3 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 6 5 4 A 5 4 3 Q 6 Q 10

19.	— J 8 5 4 A 10 8 5 4 K 9 6 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		10 6 5 3 K 9 7 K 9 7 6 A Q
2 → 3 2 → 4 2 → 4	K Q 8 7 4 A Q 6 3 Q 10 8 7

20.	— K 6 5 3 A 10 8 6 4 Q 10 9 7
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 8 7 6 7 4 K Q 5 A K 6 5
2 → 3 2 → 3 2 → 3	K 10 5 4 3 A Q J 9 8 9 7 8

233.	10 A K 9 5 K 10 9 6 5 9 8 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		6 5 3 Q 6 4 8 7 4 A K Q 7
2 → 2 2 → 2 2 → 4	K Q 8 7 4 J 8 7 3 A Q 10 6

321.	10 Q 7 5 3 10 5 4 A Q 9 7 6
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 6 4 9 6 A K Q 7 K 10 8 5
2 → 4 2 → 5 2 → 3	Q 8 7 5 3 A K J 8 4 9 8 6 —

381.	Q K Q 8 6 5 10 7 6 5 K Q 10
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 5 4 A J K Q 9 9 8 7 6 5
2 → 2 2 → 4 2 → 2	K 10 7 6 3 9 7 4 3 A 8 4 A

488.	8 5 Q 9 6 4 A K 10 9 Q 10 9
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 K 7 8 7 6 5 4 A 8 7 5
2 → 2 2 → 3 2 → 4	K 10 7 4 3 A J 8 5 3 Q K 6

825.	— A 7 5 4 K 9 8 7 4 Q 7 6 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 8 6 3 K 6 3 Q 10 5 A 10 9
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 2	Q 10 7 5 4 Q J 9 8 A 6 K 8

947.	5 A 9 6 4 A 7 5 Q 10 9 6 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		K 6 4 8 7 3 Q 8 6 4 A K 8
2 → 4 2 → 2 2 → 3	Q 10 8 7 3 K Q J 5 K 10 9 7

978.	5 4 K Q 9 8 4 Q 9 7 4 K 7
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		Q 6 J 5 K 8 6 5 A Q 9 6 5
2 → 4 2 → 3 2 → 5	K 10 8 7 3 A 7 6 3 A 10 10 8

983.	K 7 K 9 7 3 9 8 4 K Q 6 5
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 3 Q 8 4 K Q 7 5 A 9 8 7
2 → 4 2 → 5 2 → 3	Q 10 6 5 4 A J 6 5 A 10 6 10

1055.	7 4 3 A J 8 5 10 9 8 A K 7
A J 9 2 10 2 J 3 2 J 4 3 2		8 9 3 A K 7 5 4 10 9 8 6 5
2 → 2 2 → 4 2 → 2	K Q 10 6 5 K Q 7 6 4 Q 6 Q