What’s the Chance?

As declarer, answer each question about the spade suit in the contract shown.
Assume adequate entries to lead from either hand as needed.

1. 3 NT	4 3
	A K J 10

What is the chance (%) to win four tricks? 

Will you win ace first? 

2. 3 NT	K 10 9
	4 3 2

What is the chance (%) to win one trick? 

Will you finesse 10-9? 

3. 3 NT	J 3
	A K 4 2

What is the chance (%) to win three tricks? 

Which card do you lead? 

4. 3 NT	10 9
	A K 5 4 3 2

What is the chance (%) to win six tricks? 

to win five tricks? 

Quit

Top   What’s the Chance?

5. 3 NT	K 6
	A 5 4 3 2

What is the chance (%) to win four tricks? 

at least three tricks? 

6. 3 NT	A Q 4 3 2
	5

What is the chance (%) to win three tricks? 

at least two tricks? 

7. 3 NT	Q 3 2
	A 6 5 4

What is the chance (%) to win three tricks? 

at least two tricks? 

8. 3 NT	Q 9 8 5 4
You win the ace
	A 3 2

Will you finesse the nine if East drops the 10? 

if East drops the jack? 

Quit

Top   What’s the Chance?

9. 4	3 2
	A 9 8 7 6 5 4

What is the chance (%) to win six tricks? 

at least five tricks? 

10. 4	K 10 8 7 6
	Q 5 4 3 2

What is the chance (%) to win four tricks? 

Which card do you lead? 

11. 4	A 3 2
You win the ace
	K 10 7 6 5 4

Will you finesse the 10 if West drops the jack? 

if West drops the queen? 

12. 4	A 2
You win the ace
	K Q 9 8 4 3

Will you finesse the nine if West drops the 10? 

if West drops the jack? 

Quit

Top   What’s the Chance?

© 1996 Richard Pavlicek